HASI

We rate HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 43.5/100 at a current price of $36.97. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (76th percentile) and stability (37th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (22th percentile) and investment (23th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 43.5/100 places it at rank #3049 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.8B in market capitalization, HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 9% and favorable momentum (76th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of -200% (-276.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 82% (+65.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 58.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $36.97, HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 28/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 21.4x (a 79% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 15.3x (at a premium), P/B of 1.8x, P/S of 13.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (208% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (37th percentile), weak quality scores (22th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (208% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (37th percentile); weak quality scores (22th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 37th percentile and quality factor at the 22th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 5.51% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (208% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 43.5/100 (rank #3049 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 37/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.