GXO

We rate GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) as a Hold with a composite score of 59.0/100 at a current price of $63.12. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (75th percentile) and quality (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (30/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

GXO Logistics, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 59.0/100 places it at rank #790 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $6.1B in market capitalization, GXO Logistics, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 19% and momentum in the 75th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 44th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 15% (-40.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (-15.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 1%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $63.12, GXO Logistics, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 49/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 268.2x (a 1485% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 32.4x (at a premium), P/B of 2.5x, P/S of 0.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to GXO Logistics, Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (298% debt-to-equity), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 268.2x) that leaves limited margin for error, the combination of leverage (298% D/E) and thin margins (0.1% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (298% debt-to-equity); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 268.2x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (298% D/E) and thin margins (0.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 40th percentile and quality factor at the 63th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate GXO Logistics, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (0.9%), elevated leverage (298% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — GXO Logistics, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, GXO Logistics, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 59.0/100 (rank #790 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (30/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 54/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on GXO Logistics, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.