GLTR

We rate abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust (GLTR) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.3/100 at a current price of $245.85. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (96th percentile) and stability (47th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (23th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (44/100), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.3/100 places it at rank #2432 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Momentum indicators (96th percentile) are constructive regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.

Margin data is not available for abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $245.85, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 9.5x (a 21% discount to the sector median of 11.9x). The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (23th percentile) and low beta of 0.20 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (23th percentile); low beta of 0.20 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 47th percentile and quality factor at the 23th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 35.5%, disciplined leverage (0% D/E). Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 35.4% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.3/100 (rank #2432 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (44/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.