GLD

We rate SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.5/100 at a current price of $472.70. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (92th percentile) and stability (67th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (24th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (24/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SPDR GOLD TRUST holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.5/100 places it at rank #1777 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, SPDR GOLD TRUST is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (92th percentile), revenue contraction of -50% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

Margin data is not available for SPDR GOLD TRUST, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $472.70, SPDR GOLD TRUST is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.3x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x). The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to SPDR GOLD TRUST. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.04, and a stability factor in the 67th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (24th percentile); low beta of 0.04 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 67th percentile and quality factor at the 24th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (67th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SPDR GOLD TRUST's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — SPDR GOLD TRUST significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, SPDR GOLD TRUST receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.5/100 (rank #1777 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (24/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 51/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SPDR GOLD TRUST. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.