GHM

We rate GRAHAM CORP (GHM) as a Hold with a composite score of 59.7/100 at a current price of $81.70. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (82th percentile) and quality (58th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (27th percentile) and stability (51th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

GRAHAM CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 59.7/100 places it at rank #727 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $603M in market capitalization, GRAHAM CORP is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 6% and favorable momentum (82th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 24% (-18.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (+5.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 22%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $81.70, GRAHAM CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 55/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 74.0x (a 233% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 45.4x (at a premium), P/B of 6.8x, P/S of 4.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to GRAHAM CORP. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.47), significant leverage (123% debt-to-equity), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 74.0x) that leaves limited margin for error. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.47); significant leverage (123% debt-to-equity); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 74.0x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 51th percentile and quality factor at the 58th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate GRAHAM CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — GRAHAM CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, GRAHAM CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 59.7/100 (rank #727 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 55/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on GRAHAM CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.