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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 41.9GRADE C
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
13.4%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.64%
Trailing Yield
$1.64
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
19%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 41.7/100, ranked #1437 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 42/100, Value 52/100, Momentum 40/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC Do?
Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio consists of residential, construction and land, and multifamily mortgage loans; commercial real estate mortgage loans; consumer loans, such as loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans, including passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of 17 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC. GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) is classified as a small-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Banking industry. The company is led by CEO Donald E. Gibson and employs approximately 210 people, headquartered in CATSKILL, New York. With a market capitalization of $384M, GCBC is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 41.7/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.GCBC ranks #1,437 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC ranks #433 of 891 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
GCBC Stock Price and 52-Week Range
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) currently trades at $23.30. The 52-week high for GCBC is $26.04, which means the stock is currently trading -10.5% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $20.00, putting the stock 16.5% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 14K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is GCBC Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) carries a value factor score of 52/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 11.41x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a discount of 23%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.53x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.19x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, GCBC trades at 10.22x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Overall, GCBC's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) earns a quality factor score of 42/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 13.4%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.1% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
The operating margin is 31.1% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 27.8%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 20.6% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
GCBC Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1118.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.09x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage.
GCBC has a beta of 0.43, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC is 76/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC reported revenue of $124M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60. Net income for the quarter was $35M. Operating income came in at $39M.
In Q2 2026, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC reported revenue of $33M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60. Net income for the quarter was $10M. Revenue grew 13.9% year-over-year compared to Q2 2025. Operating income came in at $12M.
In Q1 2026, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC reported revenue of $32M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.52. Net income for the quarter was $9M. Revenue grew 13.9% year-over-year compared to Q1 2025. Operating income came in at $10M.
In FY 2025, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC reported revenue of $118M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.83. Net income for the quarter was $31M. Revenue grew 13.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $35M.
Over the past 8 quarters, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $104M to $124M. Investors analyzing GCBC stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
GCBC Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.6%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in GCBC stock would generate approximately $$164.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning GCBC yields less than the typical sector peer. With a net margin of 27.8%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
GCBC Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) has a momentum factor score of 40/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 26/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 12/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
GCBC vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing GCBC against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full GCBC vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
GCBC Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy GCBC? — Investment Thesis Summary
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. Low volatility (stability score 76/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 41.7/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on GCBC stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Greene County Bancorp (GCBC). While the bank demonstrates strong profitability metrics, exceeding sector averages in ROE, operating margin, and net margin, its valuation appears stretched, trading at a significant premium to its peers based on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. The bank's high debt-to-equity ratio also warrants caution, offsetting some of the positive aspects of its recent revenue growth.
The primary concern revolves around the sustainability of GCBC's premium valuation in light of its relatively small size and limited geographic footprint. While the bank has shown impressive revenue growth, the current valuation suggests expectations for continued outperformance that may be difficult to achieve consistently. Investors should carefully weigh the bank's strengths against its valuation and potential risks before considering a long-term investment.
Business Strategy & Overview
Greene County Bancorp operates as the holding company for The Bank of Greene County, a community bank providing financial services primarily in the Greene County, New York area. The bank's core business revolves around attracting deposits and originating loans, focusing on residential mortgages, commercial real estate loans, and consumer loans. Its strategy appears to be centered on serving the local community, building relationships with customers, and providing personalized banking services. This approach is typical of smaller community banks that aim to differentiate themselves from larger national institutions.
The bank's deposit products include a range of options, such as savings accounts, NOW accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit, catering to various customer needs and preferences. On the lending side, the bank offers a diversified portfolio, including residential mortgages, construction loans, commercial real estate loans, and consumer loans. This diversification helps to mitigate risk by spreading exposure across different asset classes and sectors.
GCBC operates a network of 17 full-service banking offices, indicating a commitment to physical presence and local service. This brick-and-mortar strategy contrasts with the growing trend of online-only banking, suggesting that GCBC prioritizes face-to-face interactions and community engagement. The bank's focus on traditional banking services and local relationships may appeal to customers who value personal attention and a strong community connection.
The competitive landscape for GCBC includes other community banks, regional banks, and national banks operating in the New York region. The bank's ability to compete effectively depends on its ability to offer competitive interest rates, provide superior customer service, and maintain strong relationships with local businesses and residents. The bank's long history, dating back to 1889, suggests a well-established presence and a deep understanding of the local market.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
20.6%
Sector: 9.4%
+120% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Greene County Bancorp's economic moat is likely Narrow. The bank's competitive advantage stems primarily from its established presence and strong relationships within the local community it serves. This local focus creates a degree of customer loyalty and reduces the likelihood of customers switching to larger, national banks that may not offer the same level of personalized service.
The bank's long history in the community, dating back to 1889, has allowed it to build a reputation for reliability and trustworthiness. This intangible asset contributes to its ability to attract and retain customers. Furthermore, the bank's physical presence in the community, with 17 full-service banking offices, provides a convenient and accessible option for local residents and businesses.
However, the bank's moat is not particularly wide due to the relatively low switching costs in the banking industry. Customers can easily move their accounts to other banks if they find better interest rates or services elsewhere. The bank also faces competition from larger, more established banks that have greater resources and a wider range of products and services.
The bank's efficient scale is limited by its geographic focus. While its presence in Greene County may provide a competitive advantage within that specific market, it also restricts its growth potential. Expanding into new markets would require significant investment and effort, and there is no guarantee of success. Therefore, while GCBC possesses some competitive advantages, they are not strong enough to create a wide economic moat.
The bank's ability to maintain its narrow moat will depend on its continued focus on customer service, community engagement, and maintaining competitive interest rates. Failure to do so could erode its competitive advantage and make it more vulnerable to competition from larger banks.
Financial Health & Profitability
Greene County Bancorp's financial health presents a mixed picture. The bank exhibits strong profitability metrics, with an ROE of 13.4%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 8.5%. Its operating margin of 31.1% and net margin of 27.8% also surpass sector averages, indicating efficient operations and effective cost management. Revenue growth has been robust, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 20.6%, compared to the sector average of 9.3%. This suggests that the bank is successfully expanding its business and generating strong financial performance.
However, the bank's balance sheet raises some concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1,118.00 is exceptionally high compared to the sector average of 115.00. This indicates a significant reliance on debt financing, which could increase the bank's vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns. While the current ratio of 1.09 suggests adequate liquidity, the high debt level warrants careful monitoring.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a consistent trend of revenue and net income growth. Revenue has increased steadily from $24.67M in Q1 FY2024 to $33.50M in Q2 FY2026. Net income has also shown a similar upward trend, from $5.71M in Q2 FY2024 to $10.29M in Q2 FY2026. This consistent growth trajectory is a positive sign, indicating that the bank is effectively executing its business strategy and generating increasing profits.
The operating margin has fluctuated over the past few quarters, ranging from 23.7% in Q3 FY2024 to 42.7% in Q3 FY2023. While these fluctuations are not necessarily alarming, they suggest that the bank's profitability is subject to some variability. It is important to monitor these trends to assess the long-term sustainability of the bank's profitability.
Overall, Greene County Bancorp's financial health is characterized by strong profitability and revenue growth, but also by a high level of debt. Investors should carefully weigh these factors when evaluating the bank's investment potential. The high debt level could pose a risk if interest rates rise or if the economy experiences a downturn.
Valuation Assessment
Greene County Bancorp's valuation appears stretched compared to its peers in the financial sector. The company's P/E ratio of 38.2x is significantly higher than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that investors are paying a premium for its earnings. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.4x is also higher than the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating a premium valuation.
While the bank's strong revenue growth and profitability metrics may justify a higher valuation to some extent, the magnitude of the premium raises concerns about the sustainability of the current stock price. The market may be pricing in expectations for continued outperformance that may be difficult to achieve consistently. It is important to consider whether the bank's growth prospects and competitive advantages are strong enough to justify the current valuation.
The absence of free cash flow data makes it difficult to assess the bank's valuation using traditional free cash flow-based methods. However, the high P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples suggest that the stock is not undervalued. In fact, it could be considered overvalued relative to its peers.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, if feasible with available data, would provide a more comprehensive assessment of the bank's intrinsic value. However, without reliable free cash flow projections, it is difficult to determine whether the current stock price accurately reflects the bank's future earnings potential.
Given the high valuation multiples, investors should exercise caution when considering an investment in Greene County Bancorp. The stock may be vulnerable to a correction if the bank's growth slows or if investor sentiment shifts. It is important to carefully weigh the potential risks and rewards before making a decision.
Risk & Uncertainty
Greene County Bancorp faces several risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and stock price. One of the primary risks is interest rate risk. As a bank, GCBC's profitability is sensitive to changes in interest rates. Rising interest rates could increase the bank's funding costs and reduce its net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest income it earns on loans and the interest expense it pays on deposits. This could negatively impact the bank's earnings and profitability.
Another risk is credit risk. The bank's loan portfolio is subject to the risk of borrowers defaulting on their loans. Economic downturns or adverse events in the local economy could increase the likelihood of loan defaults, which could result in losses for the bank. The bank's concentration in residential mortgages and commercial real estate loans could exacerbate this risk, as these types of loans are particularly sensitive to economic conditions.
Competition is also a significant risk. The banking industry is highly competitive, and GCBC faces competition from other community banks, regional banks, and national banks. These competitors may offer lower interest rates, better services, or more convenient locations, which could attract customers away from GCBC. The rise of online banking and fintech companies also poses a competitive threat, as these companies offer alternative financial services that may appeal to some customers.
Regulatory risk is another important consideration. The banking industry is heavily regulated, and GCBC is subject to numerous laws and regulations. Changes in these regulations could increase the bank's compliance costs or restrict its business activities, which could negatively impact its financial performance. The Dodd-Frank Act and other regulations have increased the complexity and cost of operating a bank, and further regulatory changes could pose additional challenges.
Finally, the bank's high debt-to-equity ratio poses a financial risk. The bank's reliance on debt financing increases its vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns. If interest rates rise or if the economy experiences a downturn, the bank may struggle to meet its debt obligations, which could lead to financial distress.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWGreene County Bancorp's superior profitability metrics, including ROE and net margin, justify a premium valuation compared to its peers.
BULL VIEWThe bank's consistent revenue growth and strong local presence position it for continued success in the community banking sector.
BULL VIEWGCBC's focus on traditional banking services and personalized customer relationships provides a competitive advantage in an increasingly digital world.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWGreene County Bancorp's extremely high debt-to-equity ratio creates significant financial risk and vulnerability to economic downturns.
BEAR VIEWThe bank's premium valuation, based on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, is unsustainable given its relatively small size and limited geographic footprint.
BEAR VIEWIncreased competition from larger banks and fintech companies could erode GCBC's market share and profitability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score GCBC and 4,400+ other equities.
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC exhibits a 118% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.1%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
—
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
31.1%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
27.8%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta-34%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $164 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
