GCBC

We rate GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC (GCBC) as Avoid with a composite score of 34.4/100 at a current price of $22.21. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (47th percentile) and quality (34th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (25th percentile) and investment (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (44/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 34.4/100 places it at rank #4166 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 21%, though momentum at the 25th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

Available margin data shows operating margins of 31%. Incomplete margin data limits our ability to fully assess the cost structure and margin trajectory, though the available metrics provide a partial view of operating efficiency.

At a current price of $22.21, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.2x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 3.1x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC. Key risk factors include significant leverage (1118% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (34th percentile), low beta of 0.43 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (1118% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (34th percentile); low beta of 0.43 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 47th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 13.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 1118%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.64% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 34.4/100 (rank #4166 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (44/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 31/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.