FSUN

We rate FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP (FSUN) as a Reduce with a composite score of 43.8/100 at a current price of $36.86. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (63th percentile) and momentum (47th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (29th percentile) and quality (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (35/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 43.8/100 places it at rank #2991 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.1B in market capitalization, FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 26%, though momentum at the 47th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 26% (+8.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 20.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $36.86, FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 63/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.5x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.2x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 2.4x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP. Key risk factors include significant leverage (653% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (34th percentile), low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (653% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (34th percentile); low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 42th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (653% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 43.8/100 (rank #2991 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (35/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.