FMBH

We rate FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (FMBH) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.9/100 at a current price of $41.92. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (65th percentile) and stability (60th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (30th percentile) and investment (43th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (29/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.9/100 places it at rank #2171 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $909M in market capitalization, FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 8% and favorable momentum (65th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 31% (+13.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 23.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $41.92, FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 45/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.0x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.4x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 2.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (740% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (30th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (740% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (30th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 60th percentile and quality factor at the 30th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 2.56% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (740% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.9/100 (rank #2171 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (29/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.