FGBI

We rate First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) as Avoid with a composite score of 39.6/100 at a current price of $9.15. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (49th percentile) and investment (35th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (22th percentile) and stability (24th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (15/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 39.6/100 places it at rank #3586 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $121M in market capitalization, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -0% combined with momentum at the 49th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -32% (-49.2pp vs sector) and net margins of -26.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $9.15, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 22/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 0.7x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (1618% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -26.4%), below-average price stability (24th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (1618% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -26.4%); below-average price stability (24th percentile); weak quality scores (33th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 24th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-25.6%), elevated leverage (1618% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -1.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 39.6/100 (rank #3586 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (15/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 33/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.