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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3639
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$23.1B
Frank B. Holding
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 529 branches in the United States.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = FCNCA ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | 15.7% | 12.8% | 48.9% | 37.0% | 28.8% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 0.0x | $1.1B | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | 13.2% | 1.4% | 100.0% | 97.0% | 23.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.0x | $21.5B | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | 9.9% | 0.6% | 84.5% | 70.0% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 923.0x | $18.3B | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | 17.3% | 17.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1643.8% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $5.0B | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | 12.6% | 0.9% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 7.9% | -12.9% | 4.3% | 24.0x | $37.8B | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | 22.5% | 22.8% | 101.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 138.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $8.4B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | 8.8% | 5.8% | 98.7% | 75.7% | 88.5% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 34.0x | $2.2B | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 27.1% | 100.0% | 98.9% | 459.9% | 333.4% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $43.7B | VS | |
$FCNCA FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ | 39 | 29 | 44 | 45 | 10.8x | 20.4x | 10.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 23.7% | -1.1% | 0.4% | 174.0x | $23.1B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 8.9% | 1.2% | 76.5% | 17.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 0.5x | - | REF |
FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 39.2/100. It ranks #3639 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Frank B. Holding
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
10,700
29
50
34
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for FCNCA
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for FCNCA.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 29 | 28 | +1NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 45 | 45 | 0NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 44 | 50 | -6DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 50 | 94 | -44DRAG |
| STABILITY | 34 | 27 | +7ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 34 | 25 | +9ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.1% vs WACC 4.1% (spread -3.0%)
GM 0% vs sector 77%, OM 30% vs sector 17%
Capital turnover 0.07x
Rev growth -1%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 2.1x, Net debt/EBITDA 49.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 39.2/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #3639 of 7,333 stocks, FCNCA falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
FCNCA's quality score of 29/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 10.3% (sector avg: 8.9%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 76.5%), net margins of 23.7% (sector avg: 21.5%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 44/100, FCNCA appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 10.81x, an EV/EBITDA of 20.40x, a P/B ratio of 1.11x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
With an investment score of 50/100, FCNCA exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -1.1% vs. a sector average of 10.8% and a return on assets of 1.0% (sector: 1.2%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
FCNCA is currently showing below-average momentum at 45/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -1.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.17 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
FCNCA's stability score of 34/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.17 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 174.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/'s short interest score of 34/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 174.00x). At $23.1B (large-cap), FCNCA carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
FCNCA offers a modest dividend yield of 0.4%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.9%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ is a large-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3639 of 7,333 overall (50th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 10.3% exceeding the 8.9% sector median and operating margins of 30.4% above the 17.0% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While FCNCA currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Quality (29) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 163% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 15% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA) as Avoid with a composite score of 39.2/100 at a current price of $1983.50. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (50th percentile) and momentum (45th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (29th percentile) and stability (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 39.2/100 places it at rank #3639 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $23.1B market capitalization, FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue contraction of -1% combined with momentum at the 45th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 30% (+13.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 23.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $1983.50, FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 44/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 10.8x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 20.4x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 2.6x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
The stock may offer contrarian value if near-term headwinds prove transitory — the current weakness in factor scores may reverse if business fundamentals stabilize.
The Avoid rating (composite 39.2/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (174% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Revenue decline of -1% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Below-average quality (29th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/. Key risk factors include significant leverage (174% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (34th percentile), weak quality scores (29th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (174% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (34th percentile); weak quality scores (29th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 34th percentile and quality factor at the 29th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.
We rate FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 174%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.44% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 39.2/100 (rank #3639 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ a meaningful economic moat, scoring 26/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -3.0% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 12.7/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (12.7/20) and margin superiority (8.4/20). Rev growth -1%, 10yr history. GM 0% vs sector 77%, OM 30% vs sector 17%. These pillars form the core of FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and financial resilience (1.6/20). Capital turnover 0.07x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include operating margins of 30% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-1%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 0% gross to 30% operating to 23.7% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 29th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 0%, operating margins of 30%, net margins of 23.7%. Return metrics include ROE of 10.3% and ROA of 1.0%. Relative to the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, gross margins are 76.5 percentage points below the sector median of 77%, and ROE of 10.3% compares to a sector median of 8.9%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 174%, which may limit financial flexibility, a dividend yield of 0.44%, revenue growth of -1%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
The U.S. dollar index experienced its worst weekly performance since July 2023 as President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This led to a rise in gold prices, which neared all-time highs. Meanwhile, the stock market paused after a five-day rally.
First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) (FCNCB) is said to be seeking deals, having considered pursuing a deal for KeyCorp (KEY).
First Citizens BancShares is looking to make acquisitions that will give it the scale needed to deal with the additional regulations that come into effect
First Citizens BancShares Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) announced dividend declarations across its common and preferred stock classes, with a quarterly common stock dividend of $2.10 per share on Class A and B common stock, payable on March 16, 2026. The company also declared various dividends on its preferred stock series. First Citizens is a top 20 U.S. financial institution with over $200 billion in assets.