EXOD

We rate Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) as Avoid with a composite score of 29.2/100 at a current price of $9.89. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (47th percentile) and value (41th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (2th percentile) and stability (7th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (50/100), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Exodus Movement, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 29.2/100 places it at rank #4572 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $897M in market capitalization, Exodus Movement, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 36%, though momentum at the 2th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 48% (+30.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 42.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 43%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $9.89, Exodus Movement, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 41/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 6.8x (a 43% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 6.1x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 2.6x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Exodus Movement, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.73), below-average price stability (7th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.73); below-average price stability (7th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 7th percentile and quality factor at the 47th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (14% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Exodus Movement, Inc.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by disciplined leverage (14% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 42.6%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Exodus Movement, Inc. approaches this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 12.6% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Exodus Movement, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 29.2/100 (rank #4572 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (50/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 23/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Exodus Movement, Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.