EVR

We rate Evercore Inc. (EVR) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.6/100 at a current price of $313.25. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (65th percentile) and value (59th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (20th percentile) and stability (24th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (56/100), Very High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Evercore Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.6/100 places it at rank #2545 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $13.0B market capitalization, Evercore Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 51% and momentum in the 65th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 20th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 18% (+1.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 15.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $313.25, Evercore Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 59/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 25.1x (a 110% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 19.7x (at a premium), P/B of 5.5x, P/S of 3.8x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Evercore Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.81), significant leverage (131% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (24th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.81); significant leverage (131% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (24th percentile); weak quality scores (29th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 24th percentile and quality factor at the 29th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Evercore Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 21.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 131%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Evercore Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.97% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Evercore Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.6/100 (rank #2545 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (56/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 39/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Evercore Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, very high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.