DUOL

We rate Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) as a Reduce with a composite score of 41.2/100 at a current price of $109.49. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (59th percentile) and value (50th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (11th percentile) and stability (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Wide Moat rating (70/100), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Duolingo, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 41.2/100 places it at rank #3396 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $14.7B market capitalization, Duolingo, Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 52%, though momentum at the 11th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 72% (+12.6pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 11% (+7.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 38.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 53%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $109.49, Duolingo, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 50/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 13.2x (a 44% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 49.4x (at a premium), P/B of 4.0x, P/S of 5.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Duolingo, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.43) and below-average price stability (35th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.43); below-average price stability (35th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 35th percentile and quality factor at the 59th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 72% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Duolingo, Inc.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 30.3%, disciplined leverage (44% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 38.2%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Duolingo, Inc. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 21.0% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Duolingo, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 41.2/100 (rank #3396 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Wide Moat (70/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 39/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Duolingo, Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.