DSX

We rate DIANA SHIPPING INC. (DSX) as a Buy with a composite score of 67.9/100 at a current price of $2.54. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #160 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (84th percentile) and momentum (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (39th percentile) and investment (58th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (36/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

DIANA SHIPPING INC. holds a mid-tier position (#32 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 67.9/100 places it at rank #160 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $216M in market capitalization, DIANA SHIPPING INC. is a small-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (76th percentile), revenue contraction of -13% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 94% (+38.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 26% (+8.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 6%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $2.54, DIANA SHIPPING INC. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 84/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 43.3x (a 156% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 1.6x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.6x, P/S of 0.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to DIANA SHIPPING INC.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (102% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (39th percentile), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 43.3x) that leaves limited margin for error. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (102% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (39th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 43.3x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 39th percentile and quality factor at the 72th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 94% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 12.27% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate DIANA SHIPPING INC.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.1%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 102%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; DIANA SHIPPING INC. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 12.27% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, DIANA SHIPPING INC. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 67.9/100 (rank #160 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (36/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 66/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on DIANA SHIPPING INC.. The combination of the current valuation, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.