DINO

We rate HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.5/100 at a current price of $50.21. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (75th percentile) and quality (59th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (52/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HF Sinclair Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.5/100 places it at rank #965 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $9.8B in market capitalization, HF Sinclair Corp is a mid-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -8% combined with momentum at the 53th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 91% (+36.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 3% (-14.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 1.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 2%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $50.21, HF Sinclair Corp appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 75/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17.4x (roughly in line with the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 15.2x (at a premium), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 0.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to HF Sinclair Corp. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: risk factors are within normal ranges. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 41th percentile with quality at the 59th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 91% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (29% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; a 3.82% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate HF Sinclair Corp's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 5.7%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 29%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; HF Sinclair Corp falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 3.82% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, HF Sinclair Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.5/100 (rank #965 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (52/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 55/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on HF Sinclair Corp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.