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Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
5.8%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.82%
Trailing Yield
$3.82
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
74%MID
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.5/100, ranked #423 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 65/100, Momentum 66/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does HF Sinclair Corp Do?
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Transportation industry. The company is led by CEO Michael C. Jennings and employs approximately 5,220 people. With a market capitalization of $11.0B, DINO is one of the prominent companies in the Industrials sector.
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, HF Sinclair Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.5/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.DINO ranks #423 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, HF Sinclair Corp ranks #72 of 752 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
DINO Stock Price and 52-Week Range
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) currently trades at $57.51. The stock gained $1.08 (1.9%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for DINO is $60.44, which means the stock is currently trading -4.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $24.66, putting the stock 133.2% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.6M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is DINO Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) carries a value factor score of 65/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 19.46x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 31%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.13x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.38x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, DINO trades at 16.59x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector.
Overall, DINO's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
HF Sinclair Corp Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 5.8%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 3.3% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, HF Sinclair Corp reports gross margins of 91.3%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 2.9% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 1.9%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at -7.6% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
DINO Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
HF Sinclair Corp has a debt-to-equity ratio of 30.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.94x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $2.77B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.45B.
DINO has a beta of 0.85, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for HF Sinclair Corp is 64/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
HF Sinclair Corp Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, HF Sinclair Corp reported revenue of $27.61B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08. Net income for the quarter was $539M. Gross margin was 91.3%. Operating income came in at $799M.
In FY 2025, HF Sinclair Corp reported revenue of $26.87B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08. Net income for the quarter was $586M. Gross margin was 91.1%. Revenue grew -6.0% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $927M.
In Q3 2025, HF Sinclair Corp reported revenue of $7.25B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.15. Net income for the quarter was $405M. Gross margin was 91.9%. Revenue grew 0.6% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $564M.
In Q2 2025, HF Sinclair Corp reported revenue of $6.78B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10. Net income for the quarter was $210M. Gross margin was 91.6%. Revenue grew -13.5% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $275M.
Over the past 8 quarters, HF Sinclair Corp has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $7.85B to $27.61B. Investors analyzing DINO stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
DINO Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.8%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in DINO stock would generate approximately $$382.00 in annual dividend income.
DINO Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) has a momentum factor score of 66/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 36/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 34/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
DINO vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing DINO against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full DINO vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how HF Sinclair Corp stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
DINO Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy DINO? — Investment Thesis Summary
HF Sinclair Corp presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 65/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 66/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 64/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.5/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on DINO stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
HF Sinclair (DINO) receives a Hold rating, justified by a composite score of 54.1/100, placing it in the middle of its peer group. While the company exhibits attractive valuation metrics and strong momentum, concerns regarding profitability, capital allocation, and short interest temper enthusiasm. The primary takeaway is that DINO presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks, requiring careful consideration of its cyclical industry and strategic execution.
The company's refining operations, while benefiting from favorable crack spreads at times, are inherently volatile and subject to external pressures. The Hold rating reflects the balance between DINO's potential for upside driven by operational improvements and renewable energy initiatives, and the downside risks associated with fluctuating commodity prices, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures within the energy sector.
Business Strategy & Overview
HF Sinclair operates as an independent energy company, primarily engaged in refining and marketing transportation fuels, specialty lubricants, and specialty chemicals. The company's revenue is generated from the sale of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products produced at its refineries located across the United States. These refineries are strategically positioned to serve markets in the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest, providing a geographic advantage in distribution and logistics. DINO also supplies fuels to independent Sinclair-branded stations, further expanding its market reach and brand recognition.
A key aspect of HF Sinclair's strategy involves optimizing its refining operations to maximize profitability. This includes improving efficiency, reducing costs, and adapting to changing market demands. The company invests in its refineries to enhance their capabilities and increase production capacity. Furthermore, DINO is actively involved in the growing renewables business, producing renewable diesel and exploring other sustainable energy solutions. This diversification strategy aims to reduce the company's reliance on traditional fossil fuels and capitalize on the increasing demand for cleaner energy sources.
HF Sinclair's strategic positioning is further strengthened by its integrated business model, which includes petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services. This vertical integration allows the company to control a larger portion of the value chain, enhancing its operational flexibility and reducing its exposure to external market fluctuations. The company also produces base oils and other specialized lubricants, catering to niche markets and generating higher margins.
The company's industry context is characterized by intense competition, fluctuating commodity prices, and evolving regulatory requirements. HF Sinclair competes with other major refiners and marketers in its geographic markets. The company's success depends on its ability to maintain cost competitiveness, adapt to changing market conditions, and comply with environmental regulations. The transition to cleaner energy sources presents both challenges and opportunities for HF Sinclair, requiring the company to invest in new technologies and adapt its business model to meet the evolving needs of the market.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-7.6%
Sector: 6.4%
-219% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
HF Sinclair's economic moat can be classified as Narrow, primarily derived from a combination of cost advantages and strategic asset positioning. The company's refineries, strategically located in specific geographic regions, provide a logistical advantage in serving those markets. This reduces transportation costs and enhances the company's ability to compete on price. However, the refining industry is inherently capital-intensive, and the cost of building new refineries creates a barrier to entry for new competitors, albeit not an insurmountable one.
The company's cost advantages are further enhanced by its operational efficiency and its ability to optimize its refining processes. By reducing costs and increasing production capacity, HF Sinclair can generate higher margins and maintain its competitiveness in the market. However, these cost advantages are not necessarily sustainable in the long term, as other refiners can also improve their efficiency and reduce their costs.
The Sinclair brand, while recognizable, does not represent a significant source of economic moat. While it provides a degree of customer loyalty and brand recognition, it is not strong enough to create a significant barrier to entry for competitors. The brand's value is primarily limited to the geographic regions where Sinclair-branded stations are located.
The company's involvement in the renewables business represents a potential source of future economic moat. As the demand for cleaner energy sources increases, HF Sinclair's renewable diesel production and other sustainable energy initiatives could provide a competitive advantage. However, the renewables business is still relatively small compared to the company's traditional refining operations, and its long-term impact on the company's economic moat remains to be seen.
Overall, HF Sinclair's economic moat is relatively narrow and primarily based on cost advantages and strategic asset positioning. While the company has some competitive advantages, they are not strong enough to create a wide moat that would protect it from competition in the long term. The company's success depends on its ability to maintain its cost competitiveness, adapt to changing market conditions, and capitalize on opportunities in the renewables business.
Financial Health & Profitability
HF Sinclair's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's revenue has fluctuated significantly over the past few years, reflecting the volatility of the energy market. The TTM revenue of $26.87 billion represents a decrease of 7.6% compared to the sector average of 6.6% growth, and a decline from $28.58 billion in FY2024 and $31.96 billion in FY2023. This decline indicates challenges in maintaining revenue growth in a competitive market.
The company's profitability metrics also show variability. The TTM net income of $586 million is significantly lower than the $1.71 billion reported in FY2023, but higher than the $184 million in FY2024. This fluctuation is reflected in the company's net margin, which stands at 1.9% compared to the sector average of 3.7%. The gross margin of 91.3% is significantly higher than the sector average of 35.8%, but this is misleading as it includes cost of goods sold adjustments that are not typical. The operating margin of 2.9% is lower than the sector average of 6.2%, indicating that the company's operating expenses are relatively high compared to its revenue.
HF Sinclair's balance sheet appears relatively healthy. The company has a current ratio of 1.94, indicating that it has sufficient current assets to cover its current liabilities. The total cash of $1.45 billion provides a buffer against short-term financial challenges. However, the total debt of $2.77 billion represents a significant financial obligation. The debt-to-equity ratio of 30.00 is lower than the sector average of 70.00, suggesting that the company is less leveraged than its peers.
The company's cash flow generation is a positive aspect of its financial health. The TTM free cash flow of $698.35 million indicates that the company is generating sufficient cash to fund its operations and investments. However, the lack of quarterly FCF data makes it difficult to assess the consistency of its cash flow generation.
Overall, HF Sinclair's financial health is characterized by fluctuating revenue and profitability, a relatively healthy balance sheet, and positive cash flow generation. The company's financial performance is heavily influenced by the volatility of the energy market, and its ability to maintain its financial health depends on its ability to manage its costs, optimize its operations, and adapt to changing market conditions.
Valuation Assessment
HF Sinclair's valuation metrics suggest that the stock is relatively undervalued compared to its sector. The company's P/E ratio of 19.6x is lower than the sector average of 27.7x, indicating that the stock is trading at a lower multiple of its earnings. Similarly, the company's EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.7x is lower than the sector average of 5.7x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued based on its enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
However, it's crucial to consider the context of these multiples. The refining industry is cyclical, and earnings can fluctuate significantly depending on market conditions. A low P/E ratio may simply reflect high earnings at the peak of a cycle, rather than a true undervaluation. Similarly, a low EV/EBITDA ratio may be due to concerns about the company's long-term growth prospects or its exposure to regulatory risks.
The company's ROE of 5.8% is lower than the sector average of 9.2%, indicating that the company is generating lower returns on its equity compared to its peers. This suggests that the company's profitability is relatively low, which could justify a lower valuation multiple.
The lack of historical FCF data makes it difficult to assess the company's FCF yield and compare it to its peers. However, the TTM free cash flow of $698.35 million suggests that the company is generating positive cash flow, which is a positive sign for its valuation.
Overall, HF Sinclair's valuation appears attractive based on its P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios. However, it's important to consider the cyclical nature of the refining industry and the company's relatively low ROE. A more comprehensive valuation analysis would require a detailed assessment of the company's future earnings and cash flow prospects, as well as its exposure to regulatory and competitive risks.
Risk & Uncertainty
HF Sinclair faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of commodity prices. The company's profitability is heavily influenced by the price of crude oil and refined products, which can fluctuate significantly due to changes in supply and demand, geopolitical events, and other factors. A decline in commodity prices could reduce the company's revenue and earnings, leading to lower stock prices.
Another significant risk is regulatory uncertainty. The refining industry is subject to extensive environmental regulations, which can increase the company's operating costs and limit its ability to expand its operations. Changes in environmental regulations could require the company to invest in new technologies and processes, which could be costly and time-consuming. Furthermore, the company faces the risk of fines and penalties for non-compliance with environmental regulations.
Competition is another significant risk. The refining industry is highly competitive, and HF Sinclair competes with other major refiners and marketers in its geographic markets. Increased competition could reduce the company's market share and profitability. Furthermore, the company faces the risk of new competitors entering the market, which could further intensify competition.
The company's leverage also represents a risk. The total debt of $2.77 billion represents a significant financial obligation, which could limit the company's ability to invest in new projects and adapt to changing market conditions. Furthermore, the company faces the risk of default if it is unable to meet its debt obligations.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWHF Sinclair's strategic refinery locations and integrated business model provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to capitalize on regional market dynamics and optimize profitability.
BULL VIEWThe company's growing renewables business offers significant upside potential, positioning it to benefit from the increasing demand for cleaner energy sources and reducing its reliance on traditional fossil fuels.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWHF Sinclair's profitability is highly susceptible to volatile commodity prices and fluctuating crack spreads, making its earnings unpredictable and limiting its long-term growth potential.
BEAR VIEWThe company faces significant regulatory risks and increasing environmental compliance costs, which could negatively impact its financial performance and hinder its ability to expand its operations.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score DINO and 4,400+ other equities.
HF Sinclair Corp exhibits a 22% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
3.3%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
91.3%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
2.9%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
1.9%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $382 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
HF Sinclair Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day
HF Sinclair Corp. (DINO) saw its stock advance 3.81% to $63.22, outperforming the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average on a challenging trading day. The company's shares reached a new 52-week high, surpassing its previous peak. This strong performance occurred while the broader market indices experienced declines.
