DFDV

We rate Janover Inc. (DFDV) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.1/100 at a current price of $3.63. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (74th percentile) and quality (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (16th percentile) and investment (17th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Wide Moat rating (70/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Janover Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.1/100 places it at rank #2776 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $322M in market capitalization, Janover Inc. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 949%, though momentum at the 45th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 98% (+21.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 511% (+493.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 410.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 418%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $3.63, Janover Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 74/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 1.6x (a 87% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 1.3x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.5x, P/S of 14.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Janover Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (16th percentile) and low beta of 0.62 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (16th percentile); low beta of 0.62 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 16th percentile and quality factor at the 63th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 98% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Janover Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 28.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 97%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Janover Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Janover Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 45.1/100 (rank #2776 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Wide Moat (70/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Janover Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.