DE

We rate DEERE & CO (DE) as a Buy with a composite score of 66.5/100 at a current price of $645.00. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #211 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (89th percentile) and stability (80th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (39/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

DEERE & CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 66.5/100 places it at rank #211 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $124.8B market capitalization, DEERE & CO operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Despite positive momentum (62th percentile), revenue contraction of -21% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 38% (-4.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 15% (+13.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 32%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $645.00, DEERE & CO appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 89/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 31.7x (a 42% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 25.0x (at a premium), P/B of 6.9x, P/S of 3.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to DEERE & CO. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (308% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (308% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 80th percentile and quality factor at the 78th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (80th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($124.8B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate DEERE & CO's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (308% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — DEERE & CO significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, DEERE & CO receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 66.5/100 (rank #211 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (39/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 70/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on DEERE & CO. The combination of the current valuation, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.