DBD

We rate DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc (DBD) as a Buy with a composite score of 65.2/100 at a current price of $80.70. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #279 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (84th percentile) and stability (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (30th percentile) and quality (65th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (56/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 65.2/100 places it at rank #279 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.1B in market capitalization, DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 1% and favorable momentum (72th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 25% (-17.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (+4.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 3%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $80.70, DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 84/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 114.1x (a 413% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 18.5x (at a premium), P/B of 2.6x, P/S of 0.8x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 114.1x) that leaves limited margin for error and the combination of leverage (85% D/E) and thin margins (0.6% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated valuation multiple (P/E 114.1x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (85% D/E) and thin margins (0.6% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 76th percentile and quality factor at the 65th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (76th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (2.3%), weak asset returns (ROA 0.7%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 65.2/100 (rank #279 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (56/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 65/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.