DBA

We rate INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND (DBA) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.8/100 at a current price of $26.01. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (89th percentile) and quality (52th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (23th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.8/100 places it at rank #2190 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -19% combined with momentum at the 29th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

Available margin data shows operating margins of 81%. Incomplete margin data limits our ability to fully assess the cost structure and margin trajectory, though the available metrics provide a partial view of operating efficiency.

At a current price of $26.01, INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

Valuation multiples are not available for this company, which limits our ability to assess relative pricing. We rely more heavily on factor-based valuation signals in such cases.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.23, conservative leverage (0% D/E), and a stability factor in the 89th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.23 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 89th percentile and quality factor at the 52th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (89th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 7.6%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 0%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.8/100 (rank #2190 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on INVESCO DB AGRICULTURE FUND at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.