CYD

We rate CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD (CYD) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.5/100 at a current price of $47.99. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #138 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (83th percentile) and value (82th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (40/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.5/100 places it at rank #138 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $128M in market capitalization, CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 3% and favorable momentum (83th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 15% (-27.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 0% (-1.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 17%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $47.99, CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 82/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 352.3x (a 1483% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 3.3x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.7x, P/S of 0.2x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.64, conservative leverage (28% D/E), and a stability factor in the 59th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.64 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; elevated valuation multiple (P/E 352.3x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 59th percentile and quality factor at the 58th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (28% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; a 3.99% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 21.5%, disciplined leverage (28% D/E), a 3.99% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 3.99% dividend yield, and the combination of 7.3% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.5/100 (rank #138 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (40/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 67/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on CHINA YUCHAI INTERNATIONAL LTD. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.