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Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
23.3%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.44%
Trailing Yield
$1.44
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
36%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, CSX CORP (CSX) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.0/100, ranked #262 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 62/100, Momentum 61/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
CSX CORP (CSX) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does CSX CORP Do?
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive, minerals, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. The company also offers intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 19,500 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns and leases approximately 3,500 locomotives. It also serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida. CSX CORP (CSX) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Transportation industry. The company is led by CEO Joseph Hinrichs and employs approximately 22,500 people, headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida. With a market capitalization of $77.1B, CSX is one of the prominent companies in the Industrials sector.
CSX CORP (CSX) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, CSX CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.0/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.CSX ranks #262 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, CSX CORP ranks #48 of 752 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
CSX Stock Price and 52-Week Range
CSX CORP (CSX) currently trades at $42.21. The stock lost $0.28 (0.7%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for CSX is $42.97, which means the stock is currently trading -1.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $26.22, putting the stock 61.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 6.7M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is CSX Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
CSX CORP (CSX) carries a value factor score of 62/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 25.15x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 11%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 5.85x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 5.42x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, CSX trades at 16.17x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector.
Overall, CSX's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
CSX CORP Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
CSX CORP (CSX) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 23.3%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 7.0% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, CSX CORP reports gross margins of 90.0%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 33.5% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 21.5%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at -3.1% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
CSX Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
CSX CORP has a debt-to-equity ratio of 232.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.81x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $19.16B. Cash and equivalents stand at $612M.
CSX has a beta of 0.74, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for CSX CORP is 85/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
CSX CORP Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, CSX CORP reported revenue of $14.20B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.54. Net income for the quarter was $3.06B. Gross margin was 90.0%. Operating income came in at $4.76B.
In FY 2025, CSX CORP reported revenue of $14.09B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.54. Net income for the quarter was $2.89B. Revenue grew -3.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $4.52B.
In Q3 2025, CSX CORP reported revenue of $3.59B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37. Net income for the quarter was $694M. Revenue grew -0.9% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $1.09B.
In Q2 2025, CSX CORP reported revenue of $3.57B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44. Net income for the quarter was $829M. Revenue grew -3.4% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $1.28B.
Over the past 8 quarters, CSX CORP has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $3.70B to $14.20B. Investors analyzing CSX stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
CSX Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
CSX CORP (CSX) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.4%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in CSX stock would generate approximately $$144.00 in annual dividend income. With a net margin of 21.5%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
CSX Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
CSX CORP (CSX) has a momentum factor score of 61/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 35/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 24/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
CSX vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing CSX against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full CSX vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how CSX CORP stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
CSX Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for CSX CORP (CSX) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy CSX? — Investment Thesis Summary
CSX CORP presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 62/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 61/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 85/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, CSX CORP (CSX) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.0/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on CSX stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
CSX CORP (CSX) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on CSX Corp. The company operates within a cyclical industry, and while its operational efficiency is commendable, recent revenue declines and a negative free cash flow raise concerns about near-term growth prospects. The valuation appears fair relative to its peers, but the high debt load and potential for economic slowdown warrant a cautious approach.
CSX benefits from a wide economic moat due to the high barriers to entry in the rail industry, but its performance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and commodity prices. While the company's commitment to cost control and operational improvements is positive, the current environment presents challenges that limit significant upside potential. Therefore, a Hold rating is appropriate until clearer signs of sustained revenue growth and improved free cash flow emerge.
Business Strategy & Overview
CSX Corporation operates a vast rail network spanning approximately 19,500 route miles, primarily serving the eastern United States. The company's core business revolves around transporting a diverse range of commodities, including chemicals, agricultural products, automotive goods, minerals, forest products, and coal. CSX generates revenue by charging fees for the transportation of these goods, with pricing influenced by factors such as distance, weight, and the type of commodity being shipped. The company also provides intermodal transportation services, which involve the movement of goods in containers and trailers via a combination of rail and truck transport.
CSX's strategic focus centers on operational efficiency and cost control. The company has implemented various initiatives, including Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR), to optimize its network, reduce transit times, and improve asset utilization. PSR aims to streamline operations by running trains on fixed schedules, minimizing car dwell times, and reducing the need for extensive switching. This approach has led to improved service reliability and lower operating ratios, enhancing the company's profitability.
The company's strategic positioning is heavily influenced by its geographic footprint and the industries it serves. CSX's network provides access to key industrial and population centers in the eastern United States, making it a critical transportation provider for various sectors. The company's ability to efficiently transport bulk commodities, such as coal and chemicals, is particularly important for industries that rely on these materials. Furthermore, CSX's intermodal services cater to the growing demand for efficient transportation of consumer goods, connecting ports and distribution centers across its network.
CSX competes with other major railroads, such as Norfolk Southern, as well as trucking companies and other transportation providers. The rail industry is characterized by high barriers to entry due to the significant capital investment required to build and maintain rail infrastructure. However, competition remains intense, with companies vying for market share by offering competitive pricing and service levels. CSX's ability to differentiate itself through operational efficiency and service reliability is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-3.1%
Sector: 6.4%
-148% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
CSX possesses a wide economic moat, primarily stemming from the high barriers to entry inherent in the railroad industry. Building a new rail network requires immense capital investment, extensive regulatory approvals, and significant time. The existing infrastructure, right-of-way access, and established customer relationships create a formidable advantage for incumbent players like CSX. This makes it exceedingly difficult for new competitors to emerge and challenge CSX's market position.
The network effect also contributes to CSX's moat. As the company expands its network and connects more customers, the value of its services increases for all users. A larger network allows for more efficient transportation of goods, reduced transit times, and greater flexibility in routing. This attracts more customers to CSX's network, further strengthening its competitive advantage. The interconnected nature of the rail network creates a positive feedback loop, making it increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate CSX's reach and capabilities.
Switching costs also play a role in reinforcing CSX's moat. For many customers, particularly those involved in the transportation of bulk commodities, switching to alternative transportation modes, such as trucking, can be costly and inefficient. Rail transport offers significant advantages in terms of fuel efficiency and capacity, making it a preferred option for long-haul transportation of large volumes of goods. The cost and logistical challenges associated with switching to alternative modes create a degree of customer stickiness, providing CSX with a stable revenue base.
While CSX benefits from these moat factors, it's important to acknowledge that its competitive advantage is not impervious to challenges. The company faces competition from other railroads and trucking companies, and its performance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and commodity prices. Furthermore, regulatory changes and technological advancements could potentially disrupt the industry and erode CSX's moat over time. However, the fundamental barriers to entry and the inherent advantages of rail transport provide CSX with a significant and durable competitive advantage.
Financial Health & Profitability
CSX's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company boasts impressive gross and operating margins compared to the broader industrials sector (90.0% and 33.5% respectively versus 35.8% and 6.2%), its revenue growth has been negative (-3.1% versus sector growth of 6.6%). This suggests strong cost management but potential challenges in expanding its top line. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is exceptionally high at 23.3%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 9.2%, indicating efficient use of shareholder equity.
However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is concerningly high at 232.00, far above the sector average of 70.00. This indicates a significant reliance on debt financing, which could increase financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment. The current ratio of 0.81 suggests potential liquidity issues, as current liabilities exceed current assets. This warrants close monitoring to ensure the company can meet its short-term obligations.
Examining the quarterly financial history reveals a trend of declining revenue and net income over the past few years. Revenue decreased from $14.66B in FY2023 to $14.09B in FY2025. Net income also declined from $3.71B in FY2023 to $2.89B in FY2025. This downward trend raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain its profitability in the face of economic headwinds. The operating margin has also fluctuated, indicating some variability in operational efficiency.
The most concerning aspect is the negative free cash flow of -$527.94M. This suggests that the company is not generating enough cash from its operations to cover its capital expenditures and other cash outflows. This could necessitate further borrowing or asset sales to fund its operations, further increasing its debt burden. While the company holds $612.00M in total cash, this may not be sufficient to offset the negative free cash flow and high debt levels. A turnaround in free cash flow generation is crucial for improving the company's financial health and supporting its long-term growth prospects.
Valuation Assessment
CSX's valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 24.8x is slightly below the sector average of 27.7x, suggesting that it may be relatively undervalued compared to its peers. However, the P/E ratio alone does not provide a complete picture of the company's valuation, as it does not account for its debt levels or growth prospects.
The EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.9x is significantly lower than the sector average of 5.7x, indicating that the company may be undervalued on an enterprise value basis. This suggests that the market may not be fully appreciating the company's earnings potential relative to its debt burden. However, it's important to consider that the EV/EBITDA ratio can be influenced by various factors, such as industry dynamics and company-specific risks.
The negative free cash flow complicates the valuation assessment. A traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be challenging to perform given the current negative FCF. While the company's historical profitability and strong margins suggest that it has the potential to generate positive free cash flow in the future, the timing and magnitude of this turnaround are uncertain. This uncertainty adds risk to the valuation and makes it difficult to determine a precise fair value for the stock.
Considering the company's negative revenue growth, high debt levels, and negative free cash flow, the current valuation appears fair to slightly overvalued. While the company's P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios may suggest some undervaluation, the underlying financial challenges warrant a cautious approach. A significant improvement in revenue growth and free cash flow generation would be necessary to justify a higher valuation. Until then, the current valuation reflects the risks and uncertainties associated with the company's financial performance.
Risk & Uncertainty
CSX faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the cyclical nature of the industries it serves. Demand for rail transportation is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and commodity prices. A slowdown in economic growth or a decline in commodity prices could lead to a decrease in shipping volumes and revenue for CSX. This cyclicality makes the company's earnings vulnerable to external factors beyond its control.
Another key risk is competition from other railroads and trucking companies. While the rail industry benefits from high barriers to entry, CSX still faces intense competition for market share. Competitors may offer lower prices or better service levels to attract customers, putting pressure on CSX's margins and revenue. The company must continuously innovate and improve its operational efficiency to maintain its competitive edge.
Regulatory risks also pose a threat to CSX's business. The rail industry is subject to extensive regulations related to safety, environmental protection, and labor relations. Changes in these regulations could increase the company's operating costs and compliance burdens. For example, stricter environmental regulations could require CSX to invest in cleaner locomotives or implement more stringent emissions controls. These regulatory changes could negatively impact the company's profitability.
The company's high debt levels also create a significant risk. CSX's debt-to-equity ratio is significantly higher than the sector average, indicating a heavy reliance on debt financing. This increases the company's financial risk, as it must dedicate a significant portion of its cash flow to debt service. A rise in interest rates could further increase the company's debt service costs and reduce its profitability. The high debt levels also limit the company's financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWCSX's implementation of Precision Scheduled Railroading will continue to drive efficiency gains and improve profitability, leading to higher margins and increased shareholder value.
BULL VIEWThe company's strategic geographic footprint in the eastern United States positions it to benefit from long-term economic growth and increased demand for rail transportation services.
BULL VIEWCSX's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases will support the stock price and provide investors with a steady stream of income.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWDeclining coal volumes and a potential economic slowdown will significantly reduce CSX's revenue and profitability, leading to a lower stock price.
BEAR VIEWThe company's high debt levels and negative free cash flow create a significant financial risk, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and rising interest rates.
BEAR VIEWIncreased competition from trucking companies and other railroads will erode CSX's market share and put pressure on its margins, limiting its growth potential.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score CSX and 4,400+ other equities.
CSX CORP exhibits a 330% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
7.0%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
90.0%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
33.5%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
21.5%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $144 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
