CRBG

We rate Corebridge Financial, Inc. (CRBG) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.8/100 at a current price of $27.54. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (85th percentile) and quality (69th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and momentum (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; sustainability of the current growth rate; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Corebridge Financial, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.8/100 places it at rank #2513 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $17.3B market capitalization, Corebridge Financial, Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 46%, though momentum at the 25th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 62% (-14.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 10% (-6.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -21.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -34%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $27.54, Corebridge Financial, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 85/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 101.0x (a 746% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 11.9x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 1.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Corebridge Financial, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.45), current negative profitability (net margin -21.4%), below-average price stability (38th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.45); current negative profitability (net margin -21.4%); below-average price stability (38th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 101.0x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 38th percentile and quality factor at the 69th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 62% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 2.96% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Corebridge Financial, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-17.5%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.6%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Corebridge Financial, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Corebridge Financial, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.8/100 (rank #2513 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Corebridge Financial, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.