CMI

We rate CUMMINS INC (CMI) as a Buy with a composite score of 65.0/100 at a current price of $600.37. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #285 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (74th percentile) and stability (69th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (64/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

CUMMINS INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 65.0/100 places it at rank #285 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $58.2B market capitalization, CUMMINS INC operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Despite positive momentum (74th percentile), revenue contraction of -5% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 26% (-16.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+11.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 9.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 36%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $600.37, CUMMINS INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 68/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 25.8x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 19.2x (at a premium), P/B of 6.1x, P/S of 2.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to CUMMINS INC. Key risk factors include significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 69th percentile and quality factor at the 63th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (69th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($58.2B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate CUMMINS INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 23.7%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 154%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; CUMMINS INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.77% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, CUMMINS INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 65.0/100 (rank #285 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (64/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 63/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on CUMMINS INC. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.