CMA

We rate COMERICA INC /NEW/ (CMA) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.6/100 at a current price of $90.69. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (82th percentile) and value (51th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (32th percentile) and quality (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (30/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

COMERICA INC /NEW/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.6/100 places it at rank #1754 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $8.8B in market capitalization, COMERICA INC /NEW/ is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 3% and favorable momentum (82th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

Margin data is not available for COMERICA INC /NEW/, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $90.69, COMERICA INC /NEW/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 51/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.5x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.1x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 2.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to COMERICA INC /NEW/. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (37th percentile) and weak quality scores (32th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (37th percentile); weak quality scores (32th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 37th percentile and quality factor at the 32th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 4.14% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate COMERICA INC /NEW/'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 9.5%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 73%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; COMERICA INC /NEW/ falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.14% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, COMERICA INC /NEW/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.6/100 (rank #1754 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (30/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 47/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on COMERICA INC /NEW/. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.