CHMI

We rate Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) as Avoid with a composite score of 34.4/100 at a current price of $2.60. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (44th percentile) and stability (38th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and momentum (26th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 34.4/100 places it at rank #4167 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $86M in market capitalization, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 30%, though momentum at the 26th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 70% (-6.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 50% (+33.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 39.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 56%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $2.60, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 44/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 51.4x (a 331% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 12.7x (at a premium), P/B of 0.4x, P/S of 21.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. Key risk factors include below-average price stability (38th percentile), weak quality scores (27th percentile), elevated valuation multiple (P/E 51.4x) that leaves limited margin for error. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (38th percentile); weak quality scores (27th percentile); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 51.4x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 38th percentile and quality factor at the 27th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 70% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 23.01% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-5.7%), weak asset returns (ROA -0.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 34.4/100 (rank #4167 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 31/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.