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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 63.8GRADE B
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
14.9%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.2/100, ranked #1494 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 64/100, Value 72/100, Momentum 33/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ Do?
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Banking industry. The company is led by CEO John W. Kemper and employs approximately 4,590 people, headquartered in KANSAS CITY, Missouri. With a market capitalization of $7.2B, CBSH is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
As of April 2026, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.2/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.CBSH ranks #1,494 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ ranks #450 of 891 stocks, placing it in the lower half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
CBSH Stock Price and 52-Week Range
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) currently trades at $50.48. The stock lost $0.71 (1.4%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for CBSH is $66.34, which means the stock is currently trading -23.9% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $47.27, putting the stock 6.8% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.1M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is CBSH Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) carries a value factor score of 72/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 12.92x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a discount of 13%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.92x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 19.73x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, CBSH trades at 41.12x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) earns a quality factor score of 64/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 14.9%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.7% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 48.0% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 37.7%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at -100.0% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
CBSH Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ has a debt-to-equity ratio of 763.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.13x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $9M. Cash and equivalents stand at $476M.
CBSH has a beta of 0.70, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ is 83/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ reported revenue of $372M and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.04. Net income for the quarter was $568M. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $179M.
In FY 2025, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ reported revenue of $1.48B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.04. Net income for the quarter was $571M. Revenue grew 1.0% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $732M.
In Q3 2025, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ reported revenue of $0 and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06. Net income for the quarter was $144M.
In Q2 2025, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ reported revenue of $0 and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14. Net income for the quarter was $154M.
Over the past 8 quarters, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $369M to $372M. Investors analyzing CBSH stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
CBSH Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Banking industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Financials dividend stocks may want to explore other Financials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
CBSH Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) has a momentum factor score of 33/100, signaling weak relative price performance. Stocks with low momentum scores have historically tended to continue underperforming in the near term. The investment factor score is 40/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 19/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
CBSH vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing CBSH against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full CBSH vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
CBSH Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy CBSH? — Investment Thesis Summary
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 64/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 72/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Momentum is weak at 33/100, a headwind for near-term performance. Low volatility (stability score 83/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.2/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on CBSH stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ (CBSH) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) receives a Hold rating, reflecting a balanced view of its strong profitability and stability against concerns regarding revenue growth and capital allocation. While the company exhibits attractive valuation multiples and superior returns on equity compared to the financial sector, its negative free cash flow and declining revenue trend warrant caution. The current valuation appears fair, but significant improvements in growth and capital efficiency are needed to justify a more bullish outlook.
CBSH's strength lies in its established regional presence and conservative banking practices, contributing to its high stability score. However, the lack of revenue growth and the negative free cash flow raise questions about its ability to sustain its current performance and capitalize on future opportunities. Investors should closely monitor the company's efforts to improve its growth trajectory and enhance capital allocation strategies before considering a more positive rating.
Business Strategy & Overview
Commerce Bancshares operates as a diversified financial services provider, offering a range of banking, investment, and trust services primarily in the Midwest region of the United States. The company's business is segmented into Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth, each catering to distinct customer needs. The Consumer segment focuses on retail banking products, including deposits, loans, and card services. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, cash management, and international services. The Wealth segment offers trust and estate planning, investment management, and private banking services.
CBSH's strategic positioning emphasizes a relationship-focused approach, prioritizing customer service and long-term client relationships. This strategy is reflected in its extensive branch network and commitment to local market presence. The company also invests in technology to enhance its online and mobile banking capabilities, aiming to provide convenient and accessible services to its customers. A key aspect of CBSH's strategy is its conservative risk management practices, which have contributed to its stability and resilience during economic downturns.
The company generates revenue primarily through net interest income, fees from banking services, and investment management fees. Net interest income is derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. Fee income is generated from various services, such as transaction fees, card fees, and trust administration fees. Investment management fees are earned based on assets under management and advisory services provided to clients.
CBSH's industry context is characterized by increasing competition from both traditional banks and non-bank financial institutions. The rise of fintech companies and online banking platforms has intensified the pressure on traditional banks to innovate and adapt to changing customer preferences. Regulatory changes and economic conditions also play a significant role in shaping the competitive landscape. CBSH's ability to maintain its market share and profitability depends on its ability to effectively compete in this dynamic environment.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-100.0%
Sector: 9.4%
-1166% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Commerce Bancshares possesses a Narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its established regional presence and strong customer relationships. The company's long history and reputation in the Midwest region have created a degree of brand loyalty and customer stickiness. This regional focus allows CBSH to build deeper relationships with its customers and tailor its services to meet their specific needs. The extensive branch network, while potentially a cost burden in the long run, currently provides a competitive advantage by offering convenient access to banking services for its customers.
Switching costs also contribute to CBSH's narrow moat. Customers who have established banking relationships with CBSH, including direct deposits, loan accounts, and other financial services, may face some inconvenience and costs in switching to a competitor. While these switching costs are not insurmountable, they do provide a degree of customer retention. The company's focus on providing personalized service and building long-term relationships further enhances customer loyalty and reduces the likelihood of switching.
However, CBSH's moat is not particularly wide due to the increasing competition from larger national banks and fintech companies. These competitors have greater resources and broader geographic reach, allowing them to offer a wider range of products and services. The rise of online banking and mobile banking platforms has also reduced the importance of physical branch networks, diminishing the competitive advantage of CBSH's extensive branch network.
Furthermore, the banking industry is subject to significant regulatory oversight, which can limit the ability of individual banks to differentiate themselves and build sustainable competitive advantages. Regulatory changes can also create new challenges and opportunities for banks, requiring them to adapt their business models and strategies. While CBSH's conservative risk management practices have contributed to its stability, they may also limit its ability to innovate and grow as quickly as its competitors.
In summary, Commerce Bancshares has a narrow economic moat based on its regional presence, customer relationships, and switching costs. However, the increasing competition from larger banks and fintech companies, as well as the impact of regulatory changes, limit the width and sustainability of its moat. The company needs to continue to invest in technology and innovation to maintain its competitive advantage and defend its market share.
Financial Health & Profitability
Commerce Bancshares exhibits a mixed financial profile. The company demonstrates strong profitability, as evidenced by its high ROE of 14.9% and impressive net margin of 37.7%, significantly exceeding the sector averages of 8.5% and 17.8%, respectively. The operating margin of 48.0% also highlights the company's efficient operations compared to the sector average of 22.0%. These metrics suggest that CBSH is effective at generating profits from its revenue and managing its expenses.
However, the company's revenue growth presents a significant concern. The reported revenue growth of -100.0% is misleading and requires further investigation, as it's unlikely to be accurate. The quarterly financial history shows relatively stable revenue figures around $350-$370 million per quarter, suggesting that the annual revenue growth is likely closer to flat or slightly positive. Nevertheless, the lack of significant revenue growth is a cause for concern, as it indicates that the company may be struggling to expand its business and capture new market opportunities.
The balance sheet appears relatively healthy, with a current ratio of 1.13 indicating sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Total debt is low at $9.27 million, but the debt-to-equity ratio of 763.00 is extremely high and warrants further scrutiny. This high D/E ratio could indicate a miscalculation or an unusual accounting treatment. It is crucial to understand the composition of the debt and equity to assess the true leverage of the company.
Free cash flow is negative at $-194.96 million, which is a significant concern. Negative free cash flow indicates that the company is not generating enough cash from its operations to cover its capital expenditures and other cash outflows. This could be due to a variety of factors, such as increased investments in growth initiatives, acquisitions, or inefficient working capital management. The company needs to improve its cash flow generation to ensure its long-term financial sustainability.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a consistent pattern of profitability, with net income ranging from $115 million to $154 million per quarter. However, the lack of revenue growth remains a persistent issue. The operating margin has been relatively stable, indicating that the company is maintaining its cost control efforts. Overall, Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong profitability and a healthy balance sheet, but its lack of revenue growth and negative free cash flow are significant concerns that need to be addressed.
Valuation Assessment
Commerce Bancshares' valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 11.8x is lower than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.4x is significantly lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating potential undervaluation. These multiples suggest that investors may be undervaluing CBSH's earnings and cash flow generation capabilities.
However, it is important to consider the company's growth prospects when assessing its valuation. The lack of significant revenue growth raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain its current earnings levels. If the company is unable to improve its growth trajectory, its current valuation may not be justified. Investors may be discounting the stock due to concerns about its long-term growth potential.
The negative free cash flow also impacts the valuation assessment. A company with negative free cash flow may be less attractive to investors, as it indicates that the company is not generating enough cash to fund its operations and growth initiatives. Investors may demand a higher rate of return to compensate for the increased risk associated with negative free cash flow.
Considering the company's strong profitability, healthy balance sheet, and potential undervaluation based on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, the current valuation appears fair. However, the lack of revenue growth and negative free cash flow warrant caution. The stock is not significantly undervalued, as the market may be appropriately discounting it for its growth challenges. A more bullish valuation would require evidence of improved revenue growth and positive free cash flow generation.
In conclusion, Commerce Bancshares' valuation is fair, reflecting a balance between its strong profitability and its growth challenges. The stock is not significantly undervalued, but it is also not significantly overvalued. Investors should closely monitor the company's efforts to improve its growth trajectory and enhance its cash flow generation before considering a more positive valuation.
Risk & Uncertainty
Commerce Bancshares faces several specific risks that could impact its future performance. One significant risk is the increasing competition from larger national banks and fintech companies. These competitors have greater resources and broader geographic reach, allowing them to offer a wider range of products and services. The rise of online banking and mobile banking platforms has also reduced the importance of physical branch networks, diminishing the competitive advantage of CBSH's extensive branch network. The company needs to effectively compete in this dynamic environment to maintain its market share and profitability.
Another risk is the potential for regulatory changes that could impact the banking industry. Regulatory changes can create new challenges and opportunities for banks, requiring them to adapt their business models and strategies. Increased regulatory scrutiny and compliance costs could negatively impact CBSH's profitability and growth prospects. The company needs to stay abreast of regulatory developments and proactively adapt its operations to comply with new regulations.
Economic conditions also pose a risk to CBSH's business. A slowdown in the economy could lead to increased loan defaults and reduced demand for banking services. Changes in interest rates could also impact the company's net interest income and profitability. The company needs to effectively manage its credit risk and interest rate risk to mitigate the impact of economic fluctuations.
The negative free cash flow is a significant risk that could impact the company's financial flexibility and growth prospects. If the company is unable to improve its cash flow generation, it may need to reduce its investments in growth initiatives or raise additional capital. This could negatively impact its long-term growth potential. The company needs to address the underlying causes of its negative free cash flow and implement strategies to improve its cash flow generation.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWCommerce Bancshares boasts superior profitability metrics, such as ROE and net margin, indicating efficient operations and strong earnings potential compared to its peers.
BULL VIEWThe company's conservative banking practices and strong regional presence provide stability and resilience during economic downturns, making it a safe haven investment in the financial sector.
BULL VIEWCBSH's low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest that the stock is undervalued, offering potential upside for investors as the market recognizes its intrinsic value.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWCommerce Bancshares' negative free cash flow raises concerns about its financial sustainability and ability to fund future growth initiatives.
BEAR VIEWThe company's lack of significant revenue growth indicates a limited ability to expand its business and capture new market opportunities, hindering its long-term growth potential.
BEAR VIEWThe extremely high debt-to-equity ratio, if accurate, signals excessive leverage and increased financial risk, potentially jeopardizing the company's stability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score CBSH and 4,400+ other equities.
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ exhibits a 824% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.7%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
48.0%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
37.7%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
