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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1428
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Machinery
$50.8B
David L. Gitlin
Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = CARR ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$CARR CARRIER GLOBAL Corp | 54 | 50 | 61 | 42 | 26.7x | 18.9x | 14.2% | 5.4% | 26.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | -6.0% | 1.5% | 163.0x | $50.8B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.8/100. It ranks #1428 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
David L. Gitlin
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
52,000
50
43
77
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for CARR
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for CARR.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 50 | 32 | +18ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 42 | 24 | +18ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 61 | 45 | +16ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 43 | 78 | -35DRAG |
| STABILITY | 77 | 78 | -1NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 46 | 41 | +5NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 18.4% vs WACC 8.8% (spread +9.6%)
GM 26% vs sector 43%, OM 12% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover 2.07x, R&D intensity 2.9%
Rev growth -6%, 6yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 4.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns CARRIER GLOBAL Corp a Hold rating, with a composite score of 53.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1428 of 7,333 stocks, CARR presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 50/100, CARR shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 14.2% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 26.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of 8.7% (sector avg: -0.2%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
CARR's value score of 61/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 26.73x, an EV/EBITDA of 18.92x, a P/B ratio of 3.79x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
With an investment score of 43/100, CARR exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -6.0% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of 5.4% (sector: -0.1%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
CARR is currently showing below-average momentum at 42/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -6.0% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.05 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
CARR shows good financial stability with a score of 77/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.05 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 163.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 46/100 for CARR suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 163.00x). With a $50.8B market cap (large-cap), CARRIER GLOBAL Corp may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
CARR offers a modest dividend yield of 1.5%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
CARRIER GLOBAL Corp is a large-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1428 of 7,333 overall (81st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 14.2% exceeding the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of 12.3% above the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While CARR currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Momentum (42) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 65% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 673% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 39% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.8/100 at a current price of $63.51. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (77th percentile) and value (61th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (36/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
CARRIER GLOBAL Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.8/100 places it at rank #1428 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $50.8B market capitalization, CARRIER GLOBAL Corp operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue contraction of -6% combined with momentum at the 42th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 26% (-16.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 12% (+11.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 8.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 34%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.
At a current price of $63.51, CARRIER GLOBAL Corp is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 61/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 26.7x (a 20% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 18.9x (at a premium), P/B of 3.8x, P/S of 2.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
The stock may offer contrarian value if near-term headwinds prove transitory — the current weakness in factor scores may reverse if business fundamentals stabilize.
Elevated leverage (163% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Revenue decline of -6% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to CARRIER GLOBAL Corp. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (163% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (163% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 77th percentile and quality factor at the 50th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (77th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($50.8B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate CARRIER GLOBAL Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (163% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — CARRIER GLOBAL Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, CARRIER GLOBAL Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.8/100 (rank #1428 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (36/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 54/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on CARRIER GLOBAL Corp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign CARRIER GLOBAL Corp a meaningful economic moat, scoring 36/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of +9.6% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 12.2/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (12.2/20) and economic value creation (12/20). GM 26% vs sector 43%, OM 12% vs sector 1%. ROIC 18.4% vs WACC 8.8% (spread +9.6%). These pillars form the core of CARRIER GLOBAL Corp's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include financial resilience (2.7/20) and growth durability (4.1/20). Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 4.8x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect CARRIER GLOBAL Corp's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include operating margins of 12% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-6%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 26% gross to 12% operating to 8.7% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 50th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 26%, operating margins of 12%, net margins of 8.7%. Return metrics include ROE of 14.2% and ROA of 5.4%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 16.5 percentage points below the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 14.2% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 163%, which may limit financial flexibility, a dividend yield of 1.45%, revenue growth of -6%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting CARRIER GLOBAL Corp at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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