BWB

We rate Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.1/100 at a current price of $18.55. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (78th percentile) and stability (52th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (28th percentile) and investment (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Bridgewater Bancshares Inc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.1/100 places it at rank #2141 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $484M in market capitalization, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 21% and momentum in the 78th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 35th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 20% (+2.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 15.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $18.55, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 37/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.9x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.9x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 2.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. Key risk factors include significant leverage (977% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (28th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (977% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (28th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 52th percentile and quality factor at the 28th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Bridgewater Bancshares Inc's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (977% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Bridgewater Bancshares Inc significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 49.1/100 (rank #2141 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Bridgewater Bancshares Inc at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.