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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1552
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Retail
$17.2B
Michael B. O'Sullivan
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 under the MJM Designer Shoes name.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = BURL ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 6.9% | 4.1% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | -3.4% | 1.1% | 33.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | -25.2% | -10.6% | 28.1% | -6.3% | -5.4% | -7.8% | 6.1% | 57.0x | $396M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.2% | 59.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $764M | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 32.0% | 6.6% | 51.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 178.0x | $934M | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 0.4% | -3.5% | 61.7% | 2.1% | -5.7% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 190.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | 53 | 47 | 36 | 71 | 49.5x | 31.0x | 26.2% | 4.2% | 44.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 528.0x | $17.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 9.6% | 3.6% | 37.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.7x | - | REF |
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.9/100. It ranks #1552 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for BURL.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 47 | 53 | -6DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 71 | 79 | -8DRAG |
| VALUATION | 36 | 29 | +7ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 23 | 7 | +16ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 65 | 70 | -5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 47 | 49 | -2NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 26.2% (sector 9.6%)
GM 44% vs sector 37%, OM 5% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 7%, 11yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.9/100 at a current price of $308.00. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Burlington Stores, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.9/100 places it at rank #1552 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 7% and momentum in the 71th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 44% signal strong pricing power.
Returns on equity of 26.2% exceed cost of capital.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Elevated P/E ratio of 49.5x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 528% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Burlington Stores, Inc. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Burlington Stores, Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 52.9/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1552 of 7,333 stocks, BURL presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 47/100, BURL shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 26.2% (sector avg: 9.6%), gross margins of 44.0% (sector avg: 37.3%), net margins of 3.9% (sector avg: 2.4%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 36/100, BURL appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 49.52x, an EV/EBITDA of 31.01x, a P/B ratio of 12.99x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Burlington Stores, Inc.'s investment score of 23/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 7.1% vs. a sector average of 3.7% and a return on assets of 4.2% (sector: 3.6%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
BURL shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 71/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 7.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.10 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
BURL shows good financial stability with a score of 65/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.10 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 528.00x (sector avg: 0.7x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 47/100 for BURL suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 528.00x). With a $17.2B market cap (large-cap), Burlington Stores, Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
Burlington Stores, Inc. is a large-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1552 of 7,333 overall (79th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 26.2% exceeding the 9.6% sector median and operating margins of 5.2% above the 4.4% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While BURL currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Momentum (71) vs Investment (23) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 241% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 174% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 18% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081

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Burlington Stores reported strong Q4 results, with sales and earnings exceeding analyst expectations. However, CEO Michael O'Sullivan expressed caution about the 2025 economic outlook, indicating the company will manage its business cautiously and flexibly.