BLFY

We rate Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.9/100 at a current price of $13.64. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (89th percentile) and stability (39th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (24th percentile) and quality (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (22/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Blue Foundry Bancorp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.9/100 places it at rank #1701 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $195M in market capitalization, Blue Foundry Bancorp is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 13% and favorable momentum (89th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 0% (-17.0pp vs sector) and net margins of -11.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $13.64, Blue Foundry Bancorp is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 36/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 3.3x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Blue Foundry Bancorp. Key risk factors include significant leverage (586% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -11.7%), below-average price stability (39th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (586% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -11.7%); below-average price stability (39th percentile); weak quality scores (32th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 39th percentile and quality factor at the 32th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Blue Foundry Bancorp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-3.4%), elevated leverage (586% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Blue Foundry Bancorp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Blue Foundry Bancorp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.9/100 (rank #1701 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (22/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Blue Foundry Bancorp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.