BK

We rate Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.4/100 at a current price of $116.56. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (75th percentile) and stability (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (28th percentile) and value (39th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (20/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.4/100 places it at rank #2580 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $76.5B market capitalization, Bank of New York Mellon Corp operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 3% and favorable momentum (75th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 0% (-17.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 22.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $116.56, Bank of New York Mellon Corp is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 39/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 15.3x (a 29% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 57.5x (at a premium), P/B of 1.8x, P/S of 3.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Bank of New York Mellon Corp. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (28th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (28th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 63th percentile and quality factor at the 28th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (63th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; large-cap scale ($76.5B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Bank of New York Mellon Corp's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 12.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 73%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Bank of New York Mellon Corp falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.79% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Bank of New York Mellon Corp receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.4/100 (rank #2580 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (20/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Bank of New York Mellon Corp at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.