BIYA

We rate Baiya International Group Inc. (BIYA) as a Hold with a composite score of 56.2/100 at a current price of $1.55. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (69th percentile) and investment (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (29th percentile) and value (61th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Baiya International Group Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 56.2/100 places it at rank #1130 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $10M in market capitalization, Baiya International Group Inc. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 11% and favorable momentum (62th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 11% (-48.6pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 1% (-3.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 0%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $1.55, Baiya International Group Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 61/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 5.7x (discounted to peers), P/B of 6.1x, P/S of 0.1x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Baiya International Group Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: below-average price stability (29th percentile) and low beta of -0.49 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (29th percentile); low beta of -0.49 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; the combination of leverage (56% D/E) and thin margins (0.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 29th percentile and quality factor at the 69th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our medium uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Baiya International Group Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include weak asset returns (ROA 0.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Baiya International Group Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Baiya International Group Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.2/100 (rank #1130 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Baiya International Group Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.