BFC

We rate Bank First Corp (BFC) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.3/100 at a current price of $139.01. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (76th percentile) and stability (64th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (30th percentile) and value (38th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (32/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Bank First Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.3/100 places it at rank #1958 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.2B in market capitalization, Bank First Corp is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 12% and favorable momentum (76th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 39% (+22.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 31.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $139.01, Bank First Corp is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 38/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 23.0x (a 93% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 18.7x (at a premium), P/B of 2.5x, P/S of 7.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Bank First Corp. Key risk factors include significant leverage (604% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (30th percentile), low beta of 0.51 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (604% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (30th percentile); low beta of 0.51 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 64th percentile and quality factor at the 30th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (64th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 4.37% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Bank First Corp's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 11.1%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 604%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Bank First Corp falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.37% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Bank First Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.3/100 (rank #1958 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (32/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 50/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Bank First Corp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.