BDRY

We rate Amplify Commodity Trust (BDRY) as a Hold with a composite score of 55.2/100 at a current price of $11.94. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (91th percentile) and value (64th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (19th percentile) and quality (29th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (52/100), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Amplify Commodity Trust holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 55.2/100 places it at rank #1237 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $250M in market capitalization, Amplify Commodity Trust is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 340% and momentum in the 91th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 19th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

Margin data is not available for Amplify Commodity Trust, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $11.94, Amplify Commodity Trust is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 64/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 2.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 6.2x, P/S of 2.8x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Amplify Commodity Trust. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (29th percentile) and low beta of 0.11 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (29th percentile); low beta of 0.11 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 44th percentile and quality factor at the 29th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (4% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Amplify Commodity Trust's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 85.6%, disciplined leverage (4% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 101.1%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Amplify Commodity Trust meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 82.5% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Amplify Commodity Trust receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.2/100 (rank #1237 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (52/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Amplify Commodity Trust. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.