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Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
16.9%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.59%
Trailing Yield
$1.59
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
29%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, BALL Corp (BALL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.8/100, ranked #672 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 68/100, Momentum 59/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
BALL Corp (BALL) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does BALL Corp Do?
Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Beverage Packaging, North and Central America; Beverage Packaging, Europe, Middle East and Africa; Beverage Packaging, South America; and Aerospace. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It also develops spacecraft, sensors and instruments, radio frequency systems, and other technologies for the civil, commercial, and national security aerospace markets, as well as offers defense hardware, antenna and video tactical solutions, civil and operational space hardware, and systems engineering services. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and tests satellites, remote sensors, and ground station control hardware and software; and provides launch vehicle integration and satellite operational services. Further, it offers target identification, warning, and attitude control systems and components; cryogenic systems and associated sensor cooling devices; star trackers; and fast-steering mirrors to the government agencies or their prime contractors. Additionally, the company manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Ball Corporation was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado. BALL Corp (BALL) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Shipping Containers industry. The company is led by CEO Daniel W. Fisher and employs approximately 21,000 people, headquartered in Indianapolis, Colorado. With a market capitalization of $16.1B, BALL is one of the prominent companies in the Industrials sector.
BALL Corp (BALL) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, BALL Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.BALL ranks #672 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, BALL Corp ranks #116 of 752 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
BALL Stock Price and 52-Week Range
BALL Corp (BALL) currently trades at $62.29. The stock lost $0.58 (0.9%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for BALL is $68.29, which means the stock is currently trading -8.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $43.51, putting the stock 43.2% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.7M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is BALL Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
BALL Corp (BALL) carries a value factor score of 68/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 18.08x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 36%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 3.05x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 1.28x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, BALL trades at 9.76x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector.
Overall, BALL's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
BALL Corp Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
BALL Corp (BALL) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 16.9%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 4.7% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, BALL Corp reports gross margins of 17.7%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 8.3% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 7.0%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at 14.2% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
BALL Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
BALL Corp has a debt-to-equity ratio of 260.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.11x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $7.21B. Cash and equivalents stand at $568M.
BALL has a beta of 0.47, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for BALL Corp is 84/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
BALL Corp Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, BALL Corp reported revenue of $12.90B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33. Net income for the quarter was $914M. Gross margin was 17.7%. Operating income came in at $1.08B.
In FY 2025, BALL Corp reported revenue of $13.16B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33. Net income for the quarter was $915M. Revenue grew 11.6% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $1.13B.
In Q3 2025, BALL Corp reported revenue of $3.38B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.18. Net income for the quarter was $321M. Revenue grew 9.6% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $391M.
In Q2 2025, BALL Corp reported revenue of $3.34B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77. Net income for the quarter was $215M. Revenue grew 12.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $268M.
Over the past 8 quarters, BALL Corp has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $2.96B to $12.90B. Investors analyzing BALL stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
BALL Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
BALL Corp (BALL) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.6%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in BALL stock would generate approximately $$159.00 in annual dividend income. The net margin of 7.0% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
BALL Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
BALL Corp (BALL) has a momentum factor score of 59/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 28/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 27/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
BALL vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing BALL against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full BALL vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how BALL Corp stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
BALL Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for BALL Corp (BALL) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy BALL? — Investment Thesis Summary
BALL Corp presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 68/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 84/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, BALL Corp (BALL) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.8/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on BALL stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
BALL Corp (BALL) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Ball Corporation (BALL), driven by a balanced view of its market position and financial performance. While the company benefits from a relatively stable demand for aluminum packaging and a growing aerospace segment, its high debt levels and recent negative free cash flow raise concerns about its financial flexibility and ability to invest in future growth. The current valuation appears fair, reflecting both the company's strengths and weaknesses, making a Hold rating appropriate.
The primary takeaway is that while Ball Corporation operates in industries with long-term growth potential, its financial leverage and capital allocation decisions warrant caution. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress in reducing debt, improving free cash flow, and executing its strategic initiatives before considering a more bullish stance. The aerospace segment offers diversification, but its cyclical nature and dependence on government contracts introduce additional risk.
Business Strategy & Overview
Ball Corporation operates primarily in two segments: beverage packaging and aerospace. The beverage packaging segment, which constitutes the majority of its revenue, focuses on manufacturing aluminum containers for various beverages, including carbonated soft drinks, beer, and energy drinks. The company's strategy in this segment revolves around maintaining its market share, optimizing production efficiency, and expanding into new geographic markets and product categories, such as aluminum cups and recloseable bottles. This segment benefits from the increasing consumer preference for sustainable packaging solutions, as aluminum is highly recyclable.
The aerospace segment develops and manufactures spacecraft, sensors, and related technologies for civil, commercial, and national security applications. This segment's strategy centers on securing government contracts, developing innovative technologies, and expanding its capabilities in areas such as satellite design, remote sensing, and systems engineering. The aerospace segment provides diversification and higher growth potential, but it is also subject to the cyclical nature of government spending and the competitive landscape of the aerospace industry.
Ball Corporation's overall strategic positioning involves leveraging its scale and expertise in aluminum packaging to maintain its leadership position in the beverage industry, while simultaneously investing in its aerospace segment to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities in the space and defense sectors. The company also emphasizes sustainability and innovation, aiming to meet the evolving needs of its customers and consumers.
The company's product pipeline includes advancements in aluminum packaging technology, such as lightweighting and improved printing capabilities, as well as new products like aluminum cups and recloseable bottles. In the aerospace segment, the pipeline includes new satellite designs, advanced sensor technologies, and systems engineering solutions for various government and commercial applications. These innovations are crucial for maintaining competitiveness and driving future growth.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
14.2%
Sector: 6.4%
+123% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Ball Corporation possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from cost advantages and efficient scale in the beverage packaging industry. The company's large scale allows it to achieve economies of scale in production and distribution, resulting in lower unit costs compared to smaller competitors. This cost advantage enables Ball to offer competitive pricing while maintaining healthy profit margins.
Efficient scale also contributes to the moat. The beverage packaging industry requires significant capital investment in manufacturing facilities and equipment. This creates a barrier to entry for new competitors, as they would need to invest substantial capital to achieve a similar scale and cost structure. Existing players like Ball, with established infrastructure and customer relationships, have a significant advantage.
However, the moat is not wide due to the relatively low switching costs for beverage companies. While long-term contracts and established relationships exist, beverage companies can switch suppliers if they find a better price or superior service. This limits Ball's pricing power and makes it vulnerable to competition from other large packaging companies.
The aerospace segment does not contribute significantly to the economic moat. While the segment requires specialized expertise and technology, it is highly competitive, with numerous established players vying for government contracts. The success of the aerospace segment depends more on innovation and execution than on inherent competitive advantages.
The increasing focus on sustainability and recyclable packaging could potentially strengthen Ball's moat in the long term. As consumer preferences shift towards more environmentally friendly options, Ball's aluminum packaging solutions may become more attractive, giving it a competitive edge over companies that rely on less sustainable materials. However, this trend is still evolving, and the extent to which it will widen Ball's moat remains uncertain.
Financial Health & Profitability
Ball Corporation's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with TTM revenue of $13.16 billion, a 14.2% increase compared to the sector average of 6.6%. However, its free cash flow is negative at $-588.97 million, which is a significant concern. This negative FCF could limit the company's ability to invest in future growth and reduce its debt burden.
The company's profitability metrics are generally strong, with a TTM net income of $915 million and an operating margin of 8.3%, exceeding the sector average of 6.2%. Its ROE of 16.9% is also significantly higher than the sector average of 9.2%, indicating efficient use of equity. However, the gross margin of 17.7% is considerably lower than the sector average of 35.8%, suggesting potential inefficiencies in its cost structure.
Ball Corporation's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with total debt of $7.21 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of 260.00, significantly higher than the sector average of 70.00. This high level of debt increases the company's financial risk and limits its flexibility to pursue strategic opportunities. The current ratio of 1.11 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, but the high debt burden remains a concern.
Looking at the quarterly financial history, revenue has been relatively stable, with some fluctuations. Net income and EPS have varied significantly, particularly in Q1 FY2024, which saw a large increase in net income due to a specific event. Operating margins have also fluctuated, but generally remained within a reasonable range. The lack of FCF data in the quarterly history makes it difficult to assess the company's cash flow generation trends.
Overall, Ball Corporation's financial health is characterized by strong revenue growth and profitability, but also by high debt levels and negative free cash flow. The company needs to prioritize debt reduction and improve its cash flow generation to strengthen its financial position and support future growth.
Valuation Assessment
Ball Corporation's valuation appears to be fair based on several key metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 17.1x is lower than the sector average of 27.7x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.2x is significantly lower than the sector average of 5.7x, further indicating potential undervaluation.
However, the negative free cash flow complicates the valuation assessment. A traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be challenging due to the negative FCF. Investors would need to carefully consider the company's ability to improve its cash flow generation in the future to justify a higher valuation.
Compared to its historical valuation, Ball Corporation's current multiples are within a reasonable range. The P/E ratio has fluctuated over time, but the current level is not significantly out of line with its historical average. The EV/EBITDA ratio is also consistent with its historical levels.
Considering the company's growth prospects, the current valuation seems appropriate. The beverage packaging industry is expected to grow at a moderate pace, driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging solutions. The aerospace segment offers higher growth potential, but it is also subject to greater uncertainty. The company's ability to execute its strategic initiatives and improve its financial performance will be crucial for driving future value creation.
Overall, Ball Corporation's valuation appears to be fair, reflecting both its strengths and weaknesses. The lower P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest potential undervaluation, but the negative free cash flow warrants caution. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress in improving its financial performance before considering a more bullish stance.
Risk & Uncertainty
Ball Corporation faces several specific risks and uncertainties that could impact its business and financial performance. One of the primary risks is its high level of debt. The company's significant debt burden increases its financial risk and limits its flexibility to pursue strategic opportunities. Rising interest rates could further exacerbate this risk by increasing the company's interest expense and reducing its profitability.
Another risk is the cyclical nature of the aerospace industry. The aerospace segment is heavily dependent on government contracts, which are subject to political and economic factors. Changes in government spending priorities or delays in contract awards could negatively impact the segment's revenue and profitability. Competition in the aerospace industry is also intense, with numerous established players vying for contracts.
Fluctuations in aluminum prices pose another risk. Aluminum is a key raw material for Ball Corporation's beverage packaging segment. Significant increases in aluminum prices could increase the company's cost of goods sold and reduce its profit margins. The company attempts to mitigate this risk through hedging strategies and long-term supply contracts, but these measures may not fully protect it from price volatility.
Changes in consumer preferences and regulatory requirements related to packaging materials could also impact the company. Increasing consumer demand for more sustainable packaging solutions could require Ball Corporation to invest in new technologies and materials. Regulatory changes related to packaging waste and recycling could also increase the company's compliance costs.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWBall Corporation's focus on sustainable aluminum packaging positions it favorably as consumer preferences shift towards environmentally friendly options, driving long-term growth.
BULL VIEWThe aerospace segment offers significant growth potential, diversifying the company's revenue streams and capitalizing on increasing demand for space and defense technologies.
BULL VIEWThe company's strong market position and efficient scale in the beverage packaging industry provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to maintain healthy profit margins and generate consistent revenue.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWBall Corporation's high debt levels pose a significant financial risk, limiting its flexibility to invest in future growth and potentially leading to financial distress.
BEAR VIEWNegative free cash flow raises concerns about the company's ability to generate sufficient cash to meet its debt obligations and fund its operations.
BEAR VIEWThe cyclical nature of the aerospace industry and dependence on government contracts introduce volatility and uncertainty to the company's revenue and profitability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score BALL and 4,400+ other equities.
BALL Corp exhibits a 57% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
4.7%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
17.7%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
8.3%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
7.0%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $159 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
