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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2296
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$4.9B
Gregory Garrabrants
Axos Financial, Inc. provides consumer and business banking products in the United States. It operates through Banking Business and Securities Business segments. The company also provides single family, multifamily, and commercial mortgage loans.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = AX ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$AX Axos Financial, Inc. | 48 | 28 | 41 | 76 | 11.6x | 8.2x | 16.2% | 1.7% | 86.1% | 33.5% | 26.7% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 862.0x | $4.9B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.2/100. It ranks #2296 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for AX.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 28 | 23 | +5NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 76 | 84 | -8DRAG |
| VALUATION | 41 | 45 | -4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 32 | 45 | -13DRAG |
| STABILITY | 45 | 41 | +4NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 34 | 26 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 23.3% vs WACC 9.6% (spread +13.8%)
GM 86% vs sector 78%, OM 34% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.87x
Rev growth 6%, 11yr history
Interest coverage 1.0x, Net debt/EBITDA 3.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.2/100 at a current price of $91.27. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Axos Financial, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.2/100 places it at rank #2296 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 6% and momentum in the 76th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 86% signal strong pricing power.
Returns on equity of 16.2% exceed cost of capital.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Leverage of 862% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Axos Financial, Inc. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Axos Financial, Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.2/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2296 out of 7,333 stocks. AX's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
AX's quality score of 28/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 16.2% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 86.1% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 26.7% (sector avg: 21.9%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 41/100, AX appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 11.63x, an EV/EBITDA of 8.22x, a P/B ratio of 1.88x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Axos Financial, Inc.'s investment score of 32/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 6.1% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 1.7% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
AX shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 76/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 6.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.09 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
With a stability score of 45/100, AX exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.09 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 862.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
Axos Financial, Inc.'s short interest score of 34/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 862.00x). At $4.9B (mid-cap), AX carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Axos Financial, Inc. is a mid-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2296 of 7,333 overall (69th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 16.2% exceeding the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 33.5% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While AX currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Quality (28) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 6% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 80% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 11% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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Why Axos Financial’s latest earnings are in focus Axos Financial (AX) is back on investors’ radar after reporting a quarter that beat revenue expectations by 12%, combined with strong net interest income, a solid margin, and a 23.3% jump in diluted EPS. See our latest analysis for Axos Financial. Axos Financial’s share price has climbed 28.68% over the past 90 days and delivered an 11.33% year to date share price return, while its 1 year total shareholder return sits at 38.99%. This...
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