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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2989
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$5.0B
John C. Asbury
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 130 branches and approximately 150 ATMs in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = AUB ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | 44 | 30 | 33 | 65 | 24.2x | 22.7x | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 15.5% | 56.9% | 3.9% | 16.0x | $5.0B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 43.8/100. It ranks #2989 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for AUB.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 30 | 30 | 0NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 65 | 72 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 33 | 30 | +3NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 29 | 35 | -6DRAG |
| STABILITY | 41 | 35 | +6ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 30 | 19 | +11ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 21.6% vs WACC 10.8% (spread +10.7%)
GM 0% vs sector 78%, OM 19% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 1.18x
Rev growth 57%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 0.6x, Net debt/EBITDA 3.7x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) as a Reduce with a composite score of 43.8/100 at a current price of $38.46. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 43.8/100 places it at rank #2989 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 57% and momentum in the 65th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
High
Standard
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 43.8/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2989 out of 7,333 stocks. AUB's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
AUB's quality score of 30/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 4.8% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 15.5% (sector avg: 21.9%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 33/100, AUB appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 24.20x, an EV/EBITDA of 22.73x, a P/B ratio of 1.17x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp's investment score of 29/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 56.9% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 0.6% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
AUB demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 65/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 56.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.20 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
AUB's stability score of 41/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.20 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 16.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp's short interest score of 30/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.20), elevated leverage (D/E: 16.00x). At $5.0B (mid-cap), AUB carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
AUB pays a solid dividend yield of 3.9%, contributing an income component to total returns. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is a mid-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2989 of 7,333 overall (59th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 4.8% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 18.8% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While AUB currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Investment (29) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 193% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 46% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Atlantic Union Bankshares announced the acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp for $1.6 billion, creating a regional banking powerhouse with $39.2 billion in assets.
The headline numbers for Atlantic Union (AUB) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended March 2024, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
AUB, BNTGY and CX have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on June 21, 2024.
ARCB, AUB and BGS have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on June 11, 2024.
Atlantic Union (AUB) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -7.14% and 0.96%, respectively, for the quarter ended March 2024. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?