ASO

We rate Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) as a Hold with a composite score of 55.6/100 at a current price of $61.18. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (73th percentile) and value (69th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (38th percentile) and quality (47th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (65/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 55.6/100 places it at rank #1194 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.2B in market capitalization, Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Retail Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 1% and favorable momentum (73th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 35% (-0.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (+4.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 6.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 18%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $61.18, Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 69/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 10.2x (a 53% discount to the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 7.3x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.8x, P/S of 0.7x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.66). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.66). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 48th percentile and quality factor at the 47th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (23% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 18.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 23%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.27% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.6/100 (rank #1194 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (65/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 55/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.