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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3420
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Pharmaceutical Products
$626M
John G. Houston
Arvinas, Inc. engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide, a proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) protein degrader that is in phase I clinical trial targeting the androgen receptor (AR) protein for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC)
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$ARVN ARVINAS, INC. | 41 | 41 | 22 | 43 | - | - | -11.1% | -7.4% | 100.0% | -111.2% | -90.3% | -45.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $626M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
ARVINAS, INC. (ARVN) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 41.0/100. It ranks #3420 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
John G. Houston
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
420
41
32
43
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for ARVN
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for ARVN.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 41 | 18 | +23ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 43 | 26 | +17ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 22 | 6 | +16ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 32 | 45 | -13DRAG |
| STABILITY | 43 | 23 | +20ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 51 | 51 | 0NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -11.1% (sector -2.5%)
GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -111% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 88.5%
Rev growth -45%, 8yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
ARVINAS, INC. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 41.0/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3420 out of 7,333 stocks. ARVN's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
ARVN's quality score of 41/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -11.1% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 100.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -90.3% (sector avg: -0.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
ARVN registers a value score of just 22/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 1.36x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
ARVINAS, INC.'s investment score of 32/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -45.2% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of -7.4% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
ARVN is currently showing below-average momentum at 43/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -45.2% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.96 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
ARVN's stability score of 43/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.96 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 51/100 for ARVN suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include small-cap liquidity risk. With a $626M market cap (small-cap), ARVINAS, INC. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
ARVINAS, INC. is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3420 of 7,333 overall (53rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -11.1% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -111.2% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While ARVN currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Value (22) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 347% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 135% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Op. Margin 8720% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate ARVINAS, INC. (ARVN) as a Reduce with a composite score of 41.0/100 at a current price of $12.38. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (43th percentile) and stability (43th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (22th percentile) and investment (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (33/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
ARVINAS, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 41.0/100 places it at rank #3420 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $626M in market capitalization, ARVINAS, INC. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -45% combined with momentum at the 43th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+57.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -111% (-112.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -90.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -90%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $12.38, ARVINAS, INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 22/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 2.2x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Gross margins of 100% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
A conservative balance sheet (0% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Reduce rating (composite 41.0/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -45% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Thin net margins of -90.3% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to ARVINAS, INC.. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -90.3%). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -90.3%). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 43th percentile and quality factor at the 41th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate ARVINAS, INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-11.1%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -7.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — ARVINAS, INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, ARVINAS, INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 41.0/100 (rank #3420 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (33/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 36/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on ARVINAS, INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign ARVINAS, INC. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 33/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 12.9/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (12.9/20) and reinvestment efficiency (7/20). GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -111% vs sector 1%. Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 88.5%. These pillars form the core of ARVINAS, INC.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include economic value creation (1.3/20) and growth durability (4.4/20). ROE proxy -11.1% (sector -2.5%). Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect ARVINAS, INC.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 100% providing a solid profitability foundation, declining revenues (-45%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 100% gross to -111% operating to -90.3% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 41th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 100%, operating margins of -111%, net margins of -90.3%. Return metrics include ROE of -11.1% and ROA of -7.4%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 57.5 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -11.1% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 0%, revenue growth of -45%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting ARVINAS, INC. in a relatively stronger balance sheet position. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Arvinas (NASDAQ:ARVN) executives used the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call to outline a strategy centered on advancing four Phase 1 clinical programs and preparing for multiple data disclosures in 2026, while also providing an update on the commercialization path for vepdege
Despite a significant drop in quarterly revenue, Arvinas Inc (ARVN) maintains a strong cash position and advances its clinical programs, aiming for potential FDA approval of its PROTAC technology.
It is an honor and a privilege to lead such a talented and committed team as Arvinas enters a period where we anticipate multiple value-driving milestones at the company. With four ongoing clinical trials across oncology and neurology, including our recently begun first-in-human trial of our polyQ AR degrader, ARV-027, we believe we have the potential to bring truly differentiated treatments to millions of underserved patients.