IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2947
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Trading
$1.4B
Stuart A. Rothstein
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. It originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = ARI ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 44 | 23 | 37 | 47 | 248.5x | 12.7x | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 43.1% | 5.8% | -24.0% | 9.9% | 433.0x | $1.4B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 44.1/100. It ranks #2947 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for ARI.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 23 | 6 | +17ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 47 | 47 | 0NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 37 | 36 | +1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 26 | 27 | -1NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 62 | 69 | -7DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 60 | 74 | -14DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.6% vs WACC 5.8% (spread -4.2%)
GM 0% vs sector 78%, OM 43% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.04x
Rev growth -24%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 64.3x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.1/100 at a current price of $10.64. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.1/100 places it at rank #2947 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 248.5x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 433% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 44.1/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2947 out of 7,333 stocks. ARI's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. registers a weak quality score of just 23/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of 0.3% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 5.8% (sector avg: 21.9%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
With a value score of 37/100, ARI appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 248.48x, an EV/EBITDA of 12.70x, a P/B ratio of 0.80x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s investment score of 26/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -24.0% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 0.1% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
ARI is currently showing below-average momentum at 47/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -24.0% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.68 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 62/100, ARI exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.68 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 433.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
ARI carries a short interest score of 60/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 433.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $1.4B market cap (small-cap), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. offers an attractive dividend yield of 9.9%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a small-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2947 of 7,333 overall (60th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 0.3% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 43.1% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While ARI currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Quality (23) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 63% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 96% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081

About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT t
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) released fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that fell short of analyst earnings and revenue expectations, with quarterly net income and earnings per share lower than a year earlier. See our latest analysis for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. The share price reaction has been fairly muted around the earnings release, with a 1-day share price return of a 0.28% decline. However, a 30-day share price return of 7.01% and a 1-year total...

Investors need to pay close attention to Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) reported Q4 2025 distributable earnings of $0.26 per share and full-year earnings of $0.98 per share. The company grew its loan portfolio by $1.6 billion to $8.8 billion, with over 60% consisting of post-2022 originations. Management is evaluating strategic alternatives including potential dissolution, with a planned Q1 dividend of $0.25 per share. The stock trades at $10.76, below the reported book value of $12.14, with management expecting the gap to narrow as strategy clarity improves.

Not all REITs are in a position to grow their dividend. Click here to read why CCI, OHI, AGNC stocks will likely cut their dividend.