AP

We rate AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP (AP) as a Hold with a composite score of 64.3/100 at a current price of $9.17. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (93th percentile) and value (62th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (27/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 64.3/100 places it at rank #328 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $47M in market capitalization, AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (93th percentile), revenue contraction of -3% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 21% (-21.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 1% (-0.3pp vs sector) and net margins of -1.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -9%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $9.17, AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 62/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 7.0x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.4x, P/S of 0.4x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (603% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -1.8%), the combination of leverage (603% D/E) and thin margins (-1.8% net) amplifies downside risk. The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (603% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -1.8%); the combination of leverage (603% D/E) and thin margins (-1.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 40th percentile and quality factor at the 48th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-10.7%), elevated leverage (603% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -1.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 64.3/100 (rank #328 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (27/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.