AMRC

We rate Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.7/100 at a current price of $33.29. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (71th percentile) and value (37th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (14th percentile) and quality (24th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Ameresco, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Construction sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.7/100 places it at rank #2843 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.8B in market capitalization, Ameresco, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Construction space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 20% and momentum in the 71th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 34th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 15% (-8.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (-1.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 15%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $33.29, Ameresco, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 37/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 36.5x (a 91% premium to the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 15.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.6x, P/S of 1.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Ameresco, Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.57), significant leverage (305% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (14th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.57); significant leverage (305% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (14th percentile); weak quality scores (24th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 14th percentile and quality factor at the 24th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Ameresco, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (4.5%), elevated leverage (305% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Ameresco, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Ameresco, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.7/100 (rank #2843 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 36/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Ameresco, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.