AMCR

We rate Amcor plc (AMCR) as a Hold with a composite score of 58.2/100 at a current price of $50.19. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (96th percentile) and value (60th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (19th percentile) and quality (45th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Amcor plc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 58.2/100 places it at rank #871 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $18.9B market capitalization, Amcor plc operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 68% and momentum in the 96th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 19th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 19% (-23.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (+6.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 4.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 23%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $50.19, Amcor plc is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 60/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 26.0x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 12.0x (near the sector median), P/B of 2.0x, P/S of 1.1x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Amcor plc. Key risk factors include significant leverage (218% debt-to-equity), the combination of leverage (218% D/E) and thin margins (4.6% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (218% debt-to-equity); the combination of leverage (218% D/E) and thin margins (4.6% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 45th percentile and quality factor at the 45th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 6.23% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Amcor plc's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (218% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Amcor plc significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Amcor plc receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 58.2/100 (rank #871 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 53/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Amcor plc. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.