IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#438
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Shipping Containers
$1.8B
Oliver Graham
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks and hard seltzers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Headcount
6.3K
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = AMBP ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 63 | 55 | 79 | 71 | - | 11.2x | 20.0% | -0.2% | 12.8% | 4.1% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 13.3% | -28.7x | $1.8B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 62.8/100. It ranks #438 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
HQ Base
Pending Verification
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for AMBP.
View All RatingsROE proxy 20.0% (sector -1.9%)
GM 13% vs sector 44%, OM 4% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 2%, 4yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) as a Hold with a composite score of 62.8/100 at a current price of $4.70. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 62.8/100 places it at rank #438 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 2% and momentum in the 71th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
Medium
Standard
Undervalued
Returns on equity of 20.0% exceed cost of capital.
Value factor score of 79 suggests attractive pricing.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 62.8/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #438 of 7,333 stocks, AMBP presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 55/100, AMBP shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 20.0% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 12.8% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of -0.1% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
AMBP carries a solid value score of 79/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 11.19x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
With an investment score of 55/100, AMBP exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 1.9% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of -0.2% (sector: 0.9%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
AMBP shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 71/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 1.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.91 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
AMBP shows good financial stability with a score of 76/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.91 and a debt-to-equity ratio of -28.69x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s short interest score of 32/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include small-cap liquidity risk. At $1.8B (small-cap), AMBP carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. offers an attractive dividend yield of 13.3%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #438 of 7,333 overall (94th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 20.0% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 4.1% above the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While AMBP currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Value (79) vs Short Int. (32) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
ROE 1153% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 71% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) moved after reporting higher revenue and profit, alongside plans to extend debt maturities and increase investor transparency. This put its balance sheet and capital structure in sharper focus for shareholders. See our latest analysis for Ardagh Metal Packaging. At a share price of $4.35, Ardagh Metal Packaging has seen a 19.83% 3 month share price return and a 79.51% 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting recent momentum is building despite a more modest...
Ardagh Glass Packaging-North America (AGP-North America), an operating business of Ardagh Group, has expanded its portfolio of American‑made glass food bottles with the launch of two newly designed 8oz ring neck bottles.
Silgan (SLGN) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +2.45% and +0.53%, respectively, for the quarter ended December 2025. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Ardagh Metal Packaging fair value estimate is US$8.40 Current...
Ardagh Metal Packaging recently reported higher revenue and profit than a year earlier and outlined steps to strengthen its balance sheet by extending debt maturities and improving investor disclosure. This combination of better earnings and clearer communication comes despite ongoing industry headwinds, including mixed packaging demand and concerns over the company’s high debt load and North American market-share risk. Next, we’ll examine how stronger recent results and Ardagh’s efforts to...