ALRS

We rate ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP (ALRS) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.0/100 at a current price of $24.24. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (70th percentile) and stability (48th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (30th percentile) and investment (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (36/100), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.0/100 places it at rank #2002 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $562M in market capitalization, ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 33% and momentum in the 70th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 34th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 27% (+9.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 20.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $24.24, ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 46/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.6x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.4x (at a premium), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 2.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (30th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (30th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 48th percentile and quality factor at the 30th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (11% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; a 3.70% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by disciplined leverage (11% D/E), a 3.70% dividend yield, best-in-class net margins of 20.6%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP approaches this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 3.70% dividend yield, and the combination of 1.0% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.0/100 (rank #2002 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (36/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 45/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.