ALRM

We rate Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.5/100 at a current price of $45.47. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (83th percentile) and value (61th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (64/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.5/100 places it at rank #1936 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.6B in market capitalization, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 10%, though momentum at the 48th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 66% (+6.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+9.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 13.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 20%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $45.47, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 61/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17.0x (a 28% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 14.1x (near the sector median), P/B of 2.7x, P/S of 2.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (147% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (147% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 83th percentile and quality factor at the 49th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 66% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (83th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.5/100 (rank #1936 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (64/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 56/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.