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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2302
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Pharmaceutical Products
$415M
Martin Babler
Our mission is to significantly improve the lives of patients by replacing broad immunosuppression with targeted therapies. We were founded in January 2021 as a Delaware corporation under the name FL2021-001, Inc. We changed our name to Esker Therapeutics, Inc. in March 2021, and subsequently to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. Our principal executive offices are located at 280 East Grand Avenue, South San Francisco, California.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$ALMS ALUMIS INC. | 48 | 29 | 11 | 96 | - | - | -63.3% | -49.9% | 100.0% | -3811.9% | -1234.9% | - | 0.0% | 27.0x | $415M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
ALUMIS INC. (ALMS) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.2/100. It ranks #2302 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Martin Babler
Chief Executive Officer
29
25
36
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for ALMS
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for ALMS.
View All RatingsInsufficient data for Financial Analysis
ROE proxy -63.3% (sector -2.5%)
GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -3812% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 1370.7%
Rev growth N/A, 2yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
ALUMIS INC. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.2/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2302 out of 7,333 stocks. ALMS's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
ALMS's quality score of 29/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -63.3% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 100.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -1234.9% (sector avg: -0.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
ALMS registers a value score of just 11/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 9.06x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
ALUMIS INC.'s investment score of 25/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include a return on assets of -49.9% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
ALUMIS INC. (ALMS) is exhibiting exceptional momentum with a score of 96/100, placing it among the strongest trending stocks in the market. Revenue growth data is not currently available, while a beta of 0.82 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Stocks with momentum scores this high have historically outperformed over the following 3–12 months, suggesting ALMS may continue to benefit from strong institutional interest and positive price trends.
ALMS's stability score of 36/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.82 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 44/100 for ALMS suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 27.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $415M market cap (small-cap), ALUMIS INC. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
ALUMIS INC. is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2302 of 7,333 overall (69th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -63.3% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -3811.9% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While ALMS currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Value (11) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 2452% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 135% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Op. Margin 295600% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate ALUMIS INC. (ALMS) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.2/100 at a current price of $28.10. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (96th percentile) and stability (36th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (11th percentile) and investment (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (32/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
ALUMIS INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.2/100 places it at rank #2302 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $415M in market capitalization, ALUMIS INC. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Momentum indicators (96th percentile) are constructive regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+57.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -3812% (-3813.2pp vs sector) and net margins of -1234.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -1235%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $28.10, ALUMIS INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 11/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 9.1x, P/S of 157.7x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Gross margins of 100% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
A conservative balance sheet (27% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
Positive momentum (96th percentile) indicates institutional accumulation and favorable technical dynamics that tend to persist in the intermediate term.
The Reduce rating (composite 48.2/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Thin net margins of -1234.9% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to ALUMIS INC.. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -1234.9%), below-average price stability (36th percentile), weak quality scores (29th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -1234.9%); below-average price stability (36th percentile); weak quality scores (29th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 36th percentile and quality factor at the 29th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (27% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate ALUMIS INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-63.3%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -49.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — ALUMIS INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, ALUMIS INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.2/100 (rank #2302 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (32/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on ALUMIS INC. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign ALUMIS INC. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 32/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 10.4/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (10.4/20) and financial resilience (8.6/20). GM 100% vs sector 43%, OM -3812% vs sector 1%. Interest coverage N/A. These pillars form the core of ALUMIS INC.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include economic value creation (2.5/20) and growth durability (3.5/20). ROE proxy -63.3% (sector -2.5%). Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect ALUMIS INC.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 100% providing a solid profitability foundation. The margin cascade from 100% gross to -3812% operating to -1234.9% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 29th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 100%, operating margins of -3812%, net margins of -1234.9%. Return metrics include ROE of -63.3% and ROA of -49.9%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 57.5 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -63.3% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 27%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting ALUMIS INC. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Below-average quality (29th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Alumis shares surged 94.53% following positive Phase 3 trial results for envudeucitinib, an oral TYK2 inhibitor for psoriasis that met primary and secondary endpoints. The company announced plans to raise $175 million in capital to support commercialization of the drug and its pipeline. The broader market rose modestly with the S&P 500 gaining 0.62% and Nasdaq up 0.65%.
Executives from Alumis (NASDAQ:ALMS) outlined recent clinical results, upcoming regulatory milestones, and pipeline priorities during a discussion at the Guggenheim Emerging Outlook Biotech Summit 2026. Phase III psoriasis data highlights for envudeucitinib President and CEO Martin Babler said Alum
BML Capital Management has exited its entire position in Alumis (NasdaqGS:ALMS). The move aligns with Alumis filing a new shelf registration. The company is also preparing to appear at several major investor conferences. BML Capital Management stepping away from Alumis puts fresh attention on how the market views the biotech name. Alumis, which focuses on drug development, now heads into a period where it is updating its capital markets toolkit through a shelf registration while also...
Alumis reported mixed Q2 2025 results, with missed revenue expectations and high operating expenses due to the ACELYRIN merger. The company completed patient enrollment in key clinical trials for envudeucitinib and maintains sufficient funding through 2027.
Alumis Inc. has completed its merger with ACELYRIN, Inc. The merger strengthens Alumis' balance sheet and supports the advancement of its late-stage pipeline of targeted therapies for immune-mediated diseases.