AIR

We rate AAR CORP (AIR) as a Hold with a composite score of 62.2/100 at a current price of $118.50. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (78th percentile) and stability (71th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (28th percentile) and quality (53th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (32/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

AAR CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 62.2/100 places it at rank #488 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.0B in market capitalization, AAR CORP is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 20% and momentum in the 78th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 28th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 19% (-23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (+4.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 0.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 4%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $118.50, AAR CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 64/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 156.9x (a 605% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 48.7x (at a premium), P/B of 3.0x, P/S of 1.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to AAR CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (108% debt-to-equity) and elevated valuation multiple (P/E 156.9x) that leaves limited margin for error. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (108% debt-to-equity); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 156.9x) that leaves limited margin for error; the combination of leverage (108% D/E) and thin margins (0.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 71th percentile and quality factor at the 53th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (71th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate AAR CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (1.9%), weak asset returns (ROA 0.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — AAR CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, AAR CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 62.2/100 (rank #488 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (32/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 59/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on AAR CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.