AGO

We rate ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.7/100 at a current price of $85.56. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (76th percentile) and value (71th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (38th percentile) and quality (49th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.7/100 places it at rank #1432 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $4.0B in market capitalization, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 2%, though momentum at the 38th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 114% (+37.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 57% (+40.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 53.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 46%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $85.56, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 71/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 7.0x (a 41% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 9.3x (near the sector median), P/B of 0.7x, P/S of 3.7x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.60, conservative leverage (30% D/E), and a stability factor in the 76th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.60 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 76th percentile and quality factor at the 49th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 114% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (76th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ASSURED GUARANTY LTD's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.1%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 30%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; ASSURED GUARANTY LTD falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.57% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.7/100 (rank #1432 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.