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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 66.3GRADE B
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
10.0%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.4/100, ranked #626 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 66/100, Value 74/100, Momentum 38/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does ASSURED GUARANTY LTD Do?
Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda. ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Insurance industry. The company is led by CEO Dominic J. Frederico and employs approximately 410 people. With a market capitalization of $3.6B, AGO is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.4/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.AGO ranks #626 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD ranks #187 of 891 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
AGO Stock Price and 52-Week Range
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) currently trades at $81.96. The stock lost $1.53 (1.8%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for AGO is $92.39, which means the stock is currently trading -11.3% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $74.09, putting the stock 10.6% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 320K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is AGO Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) carries a value factor score of 74/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 6.42x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a discount of 57%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 0.64x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.39x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, AGO trades at 8.73x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) earns a quality factor score of 66/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 10.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 4.8% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD reports gross margins of 114.0%. The operating margin is 57.0% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 53.0%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 2.5% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
AGO Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD has a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.91x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $1.70B. Cash and equivalents stand at $157M.
AGO has a beta of 0.60, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD is 90/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD reported revenue of $1.10B and earnings per share (EPS) of $10.39. Net income for the quarter was $581M. Gross margin was 114.0%. Operating income came in at $623M.
In FY 2025, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD reported revenue of $1.11B and earnings per share (EPS) of $10.39. Net income for the quarter was $543M. Revenue grew 27.3% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $560M.
In Q3 2025, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD reported revenue of $207M and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20. Net income for the quarter was $114M. Revenue grew -23.0% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $115M.
In Q2 2025, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD reported revenue of $281M and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10. Net income for the quarter was $106M. Revenue grew 39.1% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $130M.
Over the past 8 quarters, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $202M to $1.10B. Investors analyzing AGO stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
AGO Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Insurance industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Financials dividend stocks may want to explore other Financials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
AGO Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a momentum factor score of 38/100, signaling weak relative price performance. Stocks with low momentum scores have historically tended to continue underperforming in the near term. The investment factor score is 32/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 16/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
AGO vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing AGO against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full AGO vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how ASSURED GUARANTY LTD stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
AGO Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy AGO? — Investment Thesis Summary
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 66/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 74/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Momentum is weak at 38/100, a headwind for near-term performance. Low volatility (stability score 90/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.4/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on AGO stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain our Hold rating on Assured Guaranty (AGO). While the company exhibits strong profitability metrics and trades at a discount to its peers based on P/E and EV/EBITDA, its relatively low revenue growth and the inherent cyclicality of the financial guaranty insurance business warrant caution. The company's stability, as reflected in its low beta and high stability score, is a positive attribute, but the lack of strong growth catalysts and the potential for unforeseen credit events temper our enthusiasm.
AGO's valuation appears attractive on the surface, but the market is likely discounting the stock due to concerns about future growth prospects and the potential for large, unexpected losses stemming from insured obligations. The company's capital allocation strategy, as indicated by its low Investment score, also raises questions about its ability to generate sustainable long-term value. Therefore, while AGO may offer some upside potential, we believe a Hold rating is appropriate given the balance of risks and opportunities.
Business Strategy & Overview
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates primarily as a financial guarantor, insuring debt obligations against default. The company's core business involves assessing the creditworthiness of issuers and providing guarantees that promise to repay bondholders if the issuer fails to do so. AGO generates revenue through premiums charged for these guarantees, which are typically paid upfront or over the life of the insured obligation. The company operates in two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The Insurance segment is the primary driver of revenue and earnings, while the Asset Management segment provides ancillary services, including investment advisory services and management of collateralized loan obligations.
AGO's strategic positioning hinges on its ability to accurately assess and price risk. The company employs a rigorous underwriting process to evaluate the creditworthiness of potential insureds, focusing on sectors such as public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance. By carefully selecting the risks it insures, AGO aims to generate consistent underwriting profits and minimize losses. The company also actively manages its insured portfolio, seeking to reduce exposure to higher-risk obligations and optimize its capital allocation.
The financial guaranty insurance industry is characterized by a relatively small number of large players and significant barriers to entry. These barriers include the need for substantial capital reserves, specialized underwriting expertise, and a strong reputation for claims-paying ability. AGO benefits from its established market position and its track record of successfully navigating past credit cycles. However, the industry is also subject to cyclical fluctuations, with demand for financial guarantees tending to increase during periods of economic uncertainty and decrease during periods of strong economic growth.
AGO's product pipeline is not typically characterized by the development of entirely new products, but rather by adapting its existing insurance offerings to meet the evolving needs of the market. This includes expanding its coverage to new sectors and geographies, as well as developing innovative solutions to address specific risk management challenges. The company also focuses on enhancing its underwriting capabilities and improving its risk management processes to maintain its competitive edge.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
2.5%
Sector: 9.4%
-74% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Assured Guaranty's economic moat is best characterized as Narrow. The company benefits from intangible assets, specifically its brand reputation and claims-paying ability, which are crucial in the financial guaranty industry. Issuers and investors are more likely to seek guarantees from companies with a proven track record of fulfilling their obligations, especially during times of financial stress. AGO's history and financial strength contribute to this reputation, creating a barrier to entry for new competitors.
However, the moat is not wide due to the commoditized nature of the underlying service. While AGO differentiates itself through its underwriting expertise and risk management capabilities, the basic function of providing a financial guarantee is relatively standardized. Furthermore, the industry is subject to intense competition, with other large players vying for market share. This limits AGO's ability to consistently earn above-average returns on capital.
The absence of significant network effects also constrains the moat. While a larger insured portfolio can provide AGO with greater diversification and economies of scale, this does not necessarily translate into a competitive advantage that is self-reinforcing. The value of AGO's guarantees is primarily determined by the creditworthiness of the underlying insured obligations, rather than the size or composition of its insured portfolio.
Switching costs are also relatively low in the financial guaranty industry. Issuers can easily switch between different guarantors when issuing new debt, and investors are not typically locked into using a particular guarantor. This lack of customer stickiness further limits AGO's ability to build a wide moat.
While AGO possesses some cost advantages due to its scale and experience, these are not substantial enough to create a significant barrier to entry. Other large players in the industry have similar cost structures, and smaller players can often compete effectively by focusing on niche markets or specialized types of guarantees.
Financial Health & Profitability
Assured Guaranty demonstrates a mixed financial profile. The company's profitability metrics are strong, with a TTM Net Margin of 53.0% and an Operating Margin of 57.0%, significantly exceeding the sector averages of 17.8% and 22.0%, respectively. Its ROE of 10.0% also surpasses the sector average of 8.5%, indicating efficient use of equity. The Quality score of 67/100 reflects this strong profitability.
However, revenue growth has been inconsistent. While the TTM Revenue of $1.11B represents a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year, it is significantly lower than the sector average of 9.3%. Examining the quarterly financial history reveals fluctuations in revenue, with FY2023 showing a higher revenue of $1.37B compared to FY2024's $872.00M. This volatility suggests that AGO's financial performance is sensitive to market conditions and the volume of new insurance business.
The balance sheet appears reasonably healthy, with a Current Ratio of 1.91, indicating sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Total Debt of $1.70B is offset by Total Cash of $157.00M, resulting in a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 29.00, which is significantly lower than the sector average of 115.00. This suggests that AGO is less leveraged than its peers.
Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation has been inconsistent. The TTM FCF is $60.11M, while FY2024 showed an FCF of $121.20M. The absence of FCF data for other periods makes it difficult to assess the company's long-term cash flow trends. The Investment score of 32/100 suggests potential concerns about the company's capital allocation strategy and its ability to generate sustainable growth.
The gross margin of 114% is unusually high, and warrants further investigation. It's possible this is due to the accounting treatment of premiums and claims within the insurance business model. This high gross margin contributes to the strong operating and net margins, but it's important to understand the underlying drivers of this metric.
Valuation Assessment
Assured Guaranty's valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 7.8x is significantly lower than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.4x is also lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further supporting the notion that the stock is trading at a discount.
However, it's crucial to consider the reasons behind this apparent undervaluation. The market may be discounting AGO's stock due to concerns about its future growth prospects, the cyclical nature of its business, and the potential for large, unexpected losses stemming from insured obligations. The Momentum score of 41/100 reflects this lack of investor enthusiasm.
While the company's strong profitability metrics and low leverage may justify a higher valuation, the market may be skeptical about the sustainability of these results. The financial guaranty insurance industry is subject to significant regulatory oversight and is vulnerable to economic downturns, which could negatively impact AGO's earnings.
The Free Cash Flow yield, based on the TTM FCF of $60.11M and a market cap of $3.63B, is relatively low at approximately 1.66%. This suggests that the company is not generating a significant amount of cash relative to its market value, which could limit its ability to return capital to shareholders or reinvest in its business.
Overall, AGO's valuation appears attractive on the surface, but a deeper analysis reveals potential risks and uncertainties that may be weighing on the stock. While the company's low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest undervaluation, the market's skepticism about its future growth prospects and the inherent risks of its business warrant caution. The Value score of 74/100 indicates that the stock is relatively cheap, but it's important to consider the reasons behind this cheapness.
Risk & Uncertainty
Assured Guaranty faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the potential for large, unexpected losses stemming from insured obligations. While AGO employs a rigorous underwriting process to assess and price risk, unforeseen events such as economic downturns, natural disasters, or issuer-specific credit problems can lead to defaults and claims that exceed the company's reserves.
Regulatory risk is also a concern. The financial guaranty insurance industry is subject to significant regulatory oversight, and changes in regulations could increase AGO's capital requirements, limit its ability to write new business, or otherwise negatively impact its profitability. The company must comply with regulations in multiple jurisdictions, which adds complexity and cost to its operations.
Competition is another key risk. The financial guaranty insurance industry is characterized by a relatively small number of large players, and AGO faces intense competition from these rivals. This competition can put pressure on premiums and underwriting standards, which could reduce AGO's profitability and increase its risk exposure.
Concentration risk is also a factor. AGO's insured portfolio may be concentrated in certain sectors or geographic regions, which could increase its vulnerability to adverse events in those areas. For example, a significant downturn in the municipal bond market could lead to widespread defaults and claims, negatively impacting AGO's financial performance.
While AGO's leverage is relatively low compared to its peers, its debt obligations still represent a risk. The company must generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt, and any decline in its earnings could make it more difficult to meet its obligations. Furthermore, changes in interest rates could increase AGO's borrowing costs and reduce its profitability.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWAssured Guaranty's strong capital position and disciplined underwriting practices position it to capitalize on opportunities in the financial guaranty market, leading to increased premium revenue and earnings growth.
BULL VIEWThe company's conservative investment portfolio and low leverage provide a buffer against economic downturns, allowing it to maintain its claims-paying ability and protect shareholder value.
BULL VIEWAGO's consistent share repurchases and dividend payments demonstrate its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, making it an attractive investment for income-seeking investors.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWThe financial guaranty insurance industry is inherently cyclical and vulnerable to economic downturns, which could lead to a surge in defaults and claims, eroding Assured Guaranty's profitability.
BEAR VIEWIncreased competition from other financial guarantors and alternative risk transfer mechanisms could put pressure on premiums and underwriting standards, reducing Assured Guaranty's market share and earnings.
BEAR VIEWRegulatory changes and increased scrutiny of the financial guaranty insurance industry could increase Assured Guaranty's capital requirements and limit its ability to write new business, hindering its growth prospects.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score AGO and 4,400+ other equities.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD exhibits a 85% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
4.8%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
114.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
57.0%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
53.0%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
