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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3637
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$23.8B
Max R. Levchin
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform.
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Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
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Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | 39 | 58 | 44 | 18 | 150.8x | 646.3x | 3.2% | 0.9% | 100.0% | -0.7% | 1.6% | 94.9% | 0.0% | 254.0x | $23.8B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 39.2/100. It ranks #3637 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for AFRM.
View All RatingsROIC 1.5% vs WACC 13.2% (spread -11.7%)
GM 100% vs sector 78%, OM -1% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.15x
Rev growth 95%, 6yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 64.4x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) as Avoid with a composite score of 39.2/100 at a current price of $47.75. The stock falls in the bottom quintile, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 39.2/100 places it at rank #3637 in our full universe.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 100% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 150.8x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 254% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Weak momentum suggests persistent institutional selling pressure.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. represents a avoid based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our quantitative model flags Affirm Holdings, Inc. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 39.2/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #3637 of 7,333 stocks, AFRM falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
With a quality score of 58/100, AFRM shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 3.2% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 100.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 1.6% (sector avg: 21.9%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 44/100, AFRM appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 150.79x, an EV/EBITDA of 646.32x, a P/B ratio of 4.80x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s investment score of 24/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 94.9% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 0.9% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 18/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at 94.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 2.42 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. registers a low stability score of 11/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 2.42 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 254.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
The short interest score of 59/100 for AFRM suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 2.42), elevated leverage (D/E: 254.00x). With a $23.8B market cap (large-cap), Affirm Holdings, Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a large-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3637 of 7,333 overall (50th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 3.2% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of -0.7% below the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While AFRM currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (11) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 8218% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 65% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 29% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
U.S. stock futures advanced on Friday following Thursday's sharp sell-off, with major indices showing gains. Amazon dropped 8.39% after mixed Q4 results, while Reddit surged 11.22% on strong earnings and guidance. Roblox jumped 14.41% and Strategy Inc. gained 6.98% after beating estimates. The January jobs report was delayed to next Wednesday due to a government shutdown. Markets are pricing an 81.3% likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March.
While insurance tech company Lemonade surged 94% in 2025, its high valuation and continued unprofitability make further gains unlikely in 2026. The article recommends Affirm, a buy-now-pay-later fintech, as a better opportunity for 2026 due to its recent profitability, strong revenue growth, and potential catalysts including a possible credit card interest rate cap and its application to become an industrial loan bank.
Affirm's stock jumped 11.8% on Tuesday, driven by a weak jobs report and positive comments from its CFO about steady business performance and renewed Amazon partnership.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) is among the Most Volatile Stocks. On February 17, 2026, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) announced a deal with Lowe’s. The firm will provide payment plans to Lowe’s customers both online and through the Lowe’s mobile app. Lowe’s will join the Affirm marketplace, boosting access to the company’s shopper network. On February […]
The article recommends two financial stocks for 2026: Sezzle, a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) provider with strong revenue growth (67% YoY) and best-in-class profit margins (22.8%), and Robinhood Markets, a fintech brokerage with explosive growth across crypto trading (300% YoY), stock/options trading, and net interest revenue (66% YoY). Both companies are positioned to capitalize on the growing fintech sector.